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whats ur play?

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07keith    10

PokerStars Hand #196311751327: Tournament #2513332717, $4.90+$0.60 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXXIII (15000/30000) - 2019/01/27 23:53:30 WET [2019/01/27 18:53:30 ET]
Table '2513332717 271' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Sr Pips (1085354 in chips)
Seat 2: KOROKER (994830 in chips)
Seat 3: Muvish (1293411 in chips)
Seat 4: leandrobanza (973778 in chips)
Seat 6: Casagrand245 (383600 in chips)
Seat 7: BarraBravaa (1705570 in chips)
Seat 8: vitor762 (1406398 in chips)
Seat 9: Bessas10 (1907247 in chips)
Sr Pips: posts the ante 3000
KOROKER: posts the ante 3000
Muvish: posts the ante 3000
leandrobanza: posts the ante 3000
Casagrand245: posts the ante 3000
BarraBravaa: posts the ante 3000
vitor762: posts the ante 3000
Bessas10: posts the ante 3000
Sr Pips: posts small blind 15000
KOROKER: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KOROKER [Kc 2s]
Muvish: folds
leandrobanza: folds
Casagrand245: folds
BarraBravaa: folds
pocksta [observer] said, "vamoooooooooo bessas10"
vitor762: folds
Bessas10: raises 30000 to 60000
Sr Pips: folds
KOROKER: calls 30000
*** FLOP *** [8s Kd 6h]
KOROKER: bets 79500
Bessas10: raises 136500 to 216000
KOROKER: calls 136500
*** TURN *** [8s Kd 6h] [2c]

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knocker    10

Knowing how Pokerstars works, the 2 was a gin card and you're in for a bad beat.  A hit the river giving him trip aces.   Or did he have pocket kings?  Whatever, you lost. 

Regardless, I think you shove when the 2 hits, even though you should be crapping your pants at the sight of it because you know what's going to happen.  Do it and take the bad beat you know is going to happen 9 times out of 10.  You can claim later that you got your money in ahead and it was variance.   When in actual fact, Pokerstars bizzaro version of variance was the only hope you ever had of winning that hand.  

Bizzaro variance is when you're a 3 to 1 favorite in real poker, but 1 to 9 at Pokerstars, and you catch lightning on the river to turn your worthless near nut hand hand into a winner again.

 

You know why they don't have a bad beat jackpot at Pokerstars?  People would be winning it roughly every 5 minutes.  It would never get over about 15 bucks.   

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07keith    10

On 2/2/2019 at 1:18 AM, 07keith said:

 i need some more ops will show later on rungreat!!

KOROKER: bets 715830 and is all-in
Bessas10: calls 715830
*** RIVER *** [8s Kd 6h 2c] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
KOROKER: shows [Kc 2s] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Bessas10: shows [6c 8h] (a full house, Eights full of Sixes)
Bessas10 collected 2022660 from pot
KOROKER finished the tournament in 108th place and received $53.83.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2022660 | Rake 0
Board [8s Kd 6h 2c 8c]
Seat 1: Sr Pips (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: KOROKER (big blind) showed [Kc 2s] and lost with two pair, Kings and Eights
Seat 3: Muvish folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: leandrobanza folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Casagrand245 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: BarraBravaa folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: vitor762 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Bessas10 (button) showed [6c 8h] and won (2022660) with a full house, Eights full of Sixes

Why Why Why 12,224 plyrs would have went well if it worked out i think rungreat!

 

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knocker    10

8/6 I never would have guessed.  But that 2 on the turn was a total gin card.   At pokerstars any time you turn the low card in a hand like that, (K/2, Q/6 something like that) about 3/4 of the time it's a gin card and you're going to lose everything.   That's how they get you out and rake you into another game and make more money.  If you flop, turn, or river only the low card, you're guaranteed dead, 95% of the time.    

Keep the pot small when that happens because most of the time you'll get stacked.  According to my stats that I keep on winning hands  K/2 won 9 showdowns out of 3156.    I have about 2000 more showdowns in raw data that I haven't added to the total yet.  A quick look at the data shows K4 has won another 4 times.  That's about 13 times in something like 5000 showdowns which occurred over something like 15,000 or 20,000 hands of poker.  13 times in 15,000 hands of poker is pretty much a muck hand that never wins.  Never let that get to the river.   Win it before it gets there or get out.    

 

8/6 coincidentally sits at 26 times out of 3156.   He was nearly a 3:1 favorite  to win that hand in a showdown, even though hand strength charts show them at an exact dead heat. 

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07keith    10

I was in a tourney last night and we were down to the last 2 tables 3rd in chips and i went stone cold card dead i mean i didn't hit anything 95s was probably my best hand by the time we reached 10, and with the blinds so big i couldn't even defend my bb. whats your take on this?  try a few bluffs? light steals? also is there like a shove range chart when your this deep? the field was 1800+ starting stack 5k, 10 min blinds. the players on my table were mostly very agg shoving with quite marginal hands and getting paid off.I was unlucky to bubble as i was kinda forced to shove with the blinds eating me but was a little frustrated with going so card dead.

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knocker    10

Now I don't know this for sure, but if I know Pokerstars, this is probably what happened.  You made 3rd in chips, you're sitting pretty, time to start pushing people around.  You played with a few weak hands.  You bet flops you didn't hit trying to muscle people off.   You bet a few flops with second and third pair.  And when somebody pushed back you didn't muck,  and maybe even 4-bet a few.  Initially, you were successful.   It worked a few times.  Then you found yourself always betting into top pair, two pair, the nuts, the river killed you every fucking time even when you were ahead.   Pokerstars coolered you. 

 

They have software running on their site that can detect patterns in your play.  They admit that openly.  That's not in dispute.   They say they have it to detect soft play between friends and partners in collusion, stuff like that.  If they can detect that pattern, they can detect any pattern.  And if there is a pattern, they can exploit it to make money.   Once they got you pegged as a mad flop slammer, a blind stealer, a river bluffer,  a suited connector fan... whatever...  you'll never be dealt anything but muck hands that you seem to like playing with.  They'll always hit second or third pair but will never improve from there.  And if you keep doing what you're doing, they'll gladly bust you out and into another game and another rake.  That's what they do.   

 

It's ok to do all those things on occasion, you just can't do them every other hand.   You can't make a pattern of it.  And that's another reason to get tight towards the end.  The tighter you play, the better the starting hands you'll get.  

 

On the subject of shove range late, it's AQ suited or better I think.    You try to avoid shoving it if at all possible.  If you've got the feeling you're not ahead, you don't do it.   You have to play the other players as much as the hands themselves.  That's when you have to notice things like a guy that hasn't been in a flop in the last 40 hands and all of the sudden he's all-in from UTG and not in chip trouble.   That's pocket Aces or Kings.   Your KQ isn't going to make it.  

 

You were saying it was a mad shove festival.  That's your cue to just sit back and let it happen.   Let those guys bust themselves out.   Every time it happens you get a bigger payday.  Unless you've got the Rockets or Big Slick, something good that you're ahead with, then you get in there and get some of those pots.   But don't jump right in that pigsty and wallow in the mud with them with your KT.

 

I pm you a link to my old hand chart that hasn't been updated yet.  I don't think much has changed.  but at least you'll know what hands are total muck. 

 

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07keith    10

Thanks for the chart interesting stuff didn't realize AK was ahead of AA wow.  Your take on stars was not far off what you said, and if you say they have a software that can detect patterns in your play well that's gonna raise a few eyebrows, and if that's so why don't they just bust you early so you can re enter but it does feel like your getting sucked into a pit of hell lol you just feel your chips being dwindled on every good move or play you make and get busted as if were not suppose to happen lol i do get that sometimes playing on stars but i like to think there legit i like the big MTTs and enjoy navigating through a few hours and try improve on every game but you have given me some food for thought gl 

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knocker    10

7 hours ago, 07keith said:

 

A/K may be ahead just because it's more common.  Odds of being dealt A/A is 1 in 221.  A/K is 1 in 82. 

 

I think you have to play mostly by the percentages, and the percentages from that chart are this:

 

32% OF ALL WINNING HANDS HAVE AN A IN THEM
22% OF ALL WINNING HANDS HAVE AN K IN THEM
20% OF ALL WINNING HANDS HAVE AN Q IN THEM
76% OF ALL HANDS WON AT AT SHOWDOWN HAVE 2 cards higher than Ten in them
23% OF ALL HANDS WON ARE WON BY THE TOP 5 IN RANK A/KQTJA in that order.
40% Of ALL HANDS WON ARE WON BY THE TOP 10 IN RANK  A/KQTJA, Q/Q, K/J, K/K, K/T, J/J
26% OF ALL WINING HANDS ARE POCKET PAIRS
16% of all winning hands are pocket pairs lower than A/A, K/K, Q/Q.
90% of all hands won are won by Pocket Pairs, or hands with an A.K,Q or J in them.
The worst hand relative it it's theoretical strength is K/4.  It wins 0.12% of showdowns.  It should
be winning 52% of the time against any random hand. 

 

 

But like I said before, keep a chart of what's winning right now.  Here's an example from a few days ago;

 

X-73xx9777797x

 

I like to use capital X for ten.  Those were all the hands that had T as a high card.  Look at all the T/7 winners.  T/7 was kicking ass all day.  It was winning more than pocket tens.  T/7 is usually an auto-muck.   Not that day though.  Three of those were mine.  I started playing them after I noticed they were winning.  I won some good pots with cards I otherwise would have mucked.   Unfortunately I had to muck one to an all-in against me preflop.  I would have won that too.  I should have called but chickened out.  I could have kicked myself.  I knew it was going to win.  I could have stacked two guys with that.  T/7 has been dead ever since.   One day freaks of nature, you do see them sometimes but only if you're keeping track.    

 

But generally you don't play any of those other shit hands, unless you're in the BB and you get limped to.   Muck them all.  Some of the connectors do a little better, play those once in awhile, but here's something to watch for that tells you you can't win. 

 

You have 6d/7d, facing just a min raise, you're in the BB, it's cheap, you decide to take a flop.  Flop comes:

 

Kd,5c,8h

 

You'll notice if you're paying attention, you make the 4 card straight about half the time.  It always looks really good.  You get a smile on your face, you're behind, but it's a good kind of behind.  The kind of behind that's going to surprise somebody and take their entire stack.  Not bad, you have an up and down straight draw and backdoor flush.    He bets and you're pretty sure he has a king, worth a call to see the turn though.  Turn comes:

 

5h

 

You're dead.  Whenever one of the cards that makes your 4 card straight pair, that's a gin card, you will never see the 4 or 9 on the river.  And if you do see the 9, he's got K/T and has you beat.  That paired card on the turn always tells you your connectors are done.  Muck or check, don't call anything and you certainly don't bet or raise.  Just watch for that as you play, you'll see what I mean.   It happens over and over.   

Edited by knocker
omission
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knocker    10

Don't take my word for anything keith.  Watch the game, and see what I tell you is going to happen, happen over and over and over.   Seeing with your own two eyes is believing.   You'll see it if you're watching for it.  

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knocker    10

On the same subject of keeping track of hands....  here's another one from 2 days before T/7 went crazy. 

 

9-83838996945988989

 

9/8,  it wasn't winning every hand like T/7 was 2 days later, but it was winning often enough to play with.  Look at the chart, 9/8 does pretty good, but this was way better than usual.  It won as often as pocket 9's.  4 days later:

 

9-769798999679999

 

Once all day.

 

That's why you can't go by just the chart.  The chart is better than nothing, but having the days running count is even better.  If you'd have been playing 9/8 all day you'd have done nothing but lose.  4 days earlier you'd have done very good with it  That's why you have to do it.  Have to keep track every day.   In fact what I do is go into an already running tournament and collect winning hands.  I open all the tables, look for 5 card boards, and look at them to see what hand won.  I record them.   I spend about a half an hour doing it.  By the time I enter my first MTT I already have a feel for what's winning and losing and I get more data as the day goes on.  Getting that early data start helps.  Spend the time.  It'll pay off in the end.         

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