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15bb - FT vs weak villain - ICM

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FlopDeck    10


$200,000/$400,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 20 02 2019 02:15:39
Tournament #134945559 $5 + $0.50 - Table #113 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: Trankilo1978 ( $5,770,639 )
Seat 5: FlopDdeck ( $6,020,616 )
Seat 6: Raz_dolbay ( $13,626,555 )
Seat 7: bastian16jeb ( $6,324,708 )
Seat 9: frannypagnts ( $15,777,482 )
FlopDdeck posts ante [$50,000]
frannypagnts posts ante [$50,000]
Raz_dolbay posts ante [$50,000]
Trankilo1978 posts ante [$50,000]
bastian16jeb posts ante [$50,000]
FlopDdeck posts small blind [$200,000]
Raz_dolbay posts big blind [$400,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to FlopDdeck [ Kd, Qs ]
bastian16jeb folds
frannypagnts folds
Trankilo1978 raises [$5,720,639] and is all in

Hero......

 

Notes,

54h sample, VPIP: 25, PFR: 16, 3b: 0, AF: 1 - (basically just played with villain on the FT)

 

Read villain as very weak. Villain open shoved from steal positions multiple, multiple times. Shove range something like any paint, all Ax, all suited Kx, JTo+, J9s+, any pair, K7o+, 65s+

 

Would you take this spot and move in for 15bb or fold and see if a better spot came?

 

ICM consideration; moving in and losing would have meant a cash of approx $365. 1st place prize was around $1360.

 

BB was pretty tight. UTG-2 was LAG. 

 



 

Edited by FlopDeck
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turbulence    12

I've put this through HoldemResource Calculator ICM simulation. Believe it or not but your 'villians' shoving range seems to be correct i.e. he was shoving correctly from what you have said. Regardless, your calling off range has to remain pretty tight and KQoff is significantly loosing. 

image.thumb.png.7291c697975c60526277ba25b1f5e2df.png

 

image.thumb.png.5b3c5a89c459c58446ca6611143e8892.png

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FlopDeck    10

39 minutes ago, turbulence said:

I've put this through HoldemResource Calculator ICM simulation. Believe it or not but your 'villians' shoving range seems to be correct i.e. he was shoving correctly from what you have said. Regardless, your calling off range has to remain pretty tight and KQoff is significantly loosing. 

image.thumb.png.7291c697975c60526277ba25b1f5e2df.png

 

image.thumb.png.5b3c5a89c459c58446ca6611143e8892.png

 

Wow did not expect KQ to be a big loser here. I did call. He showed A8o and flopped me dead. Big lesson learned here. Thanks, really appreciate this. 

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turbulence    12

Chip EV wise it's a positive call i.e. in the earlier stages of the tornament, but ICM wise on the FT it's burning dosh. Even KQs is slightly losing. 

 

Making that adjustment in your mindset when you hit the FT can be difficult, especially if you're multi tabling, but it's where the money is made. The toughest stacks to play are the mid stacks on the FT, shortest stack and biggest stacks are the easiest. 

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FlopDeck    10

1 hour ago, turbulence said:

Chip EV wise it's a positive call i.e. in the earlier stages of the tornament, but ICM wise on the FT it's burning dosh. Even KQs is slightly losing. 

 

Making that adjustment in your mindset when you hit the FT can be difficult, especially if you're multi tabling, but it's where the money is made. The toughest stacks to play are the mid stacks on the FT, shortest stack and biggest stacks are the easiest. 

Indeed. I did have ICM in mind and went deep into the tank but still made the error. Still kinda surprised to see just how tight we call here ie ATs+ AJo+ and 88 as GII comfortable hands. Duly noted, thanks again bud. Won't make this mistake again. 

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negrealanu    10

Nice analysis here @turbulence. Given @FlopDeck's stats and observations on villain I think your HRC assumptions are spot on. Definitely surprised to see how big of a loser KQo is, but it makes sense at these stack sizes. Pretty hard to let this one go, especially without a short stack dynamic where we need to tighten up additionally.

8
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turbulence    12

56 minutes ago, negrealanu said:

Nice analysis here @turbulence. Given @FlopDeck's stats and observations on villain I think your HRC assumptions are spot on. Definitely surprised to see how big of a loser KQo is, but it makes sense at these stack sizes. Pretty hard to let this one go, especially without a short stack dynamic where we need to tighten up additionally.

I was also a bit surprised. But looking at it deeper I think it boils down to 2 things 1) the BB is still to act and has the 'big' stack and can actually over call pretty wide so we need to consider how KQ is doing against both ranges not just the shove range from the BTN 2) there is a reasonable possibility that when we fold the BB calls and wins and we ladder another pay jump. Conversely, when we call and the BB calls we are in pretty bad shape 3 way and can be the ones knocked out. 

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FlopDeck    10

Thanks guys. It was a spot that made me vomit a little. Didn't really know where I was at tbh other than it was close-ish. Did not expect such a big loser either but there you go. 

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