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PokerstarsNJ...Does this make statistical sense?

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willyw3w    10

So, years ago I stopped on-line poker because I didn't trust it. Too many weird beats, etc. Everyone said "they make so much off the rake, they would be crazy to cheat" -- I said "never underestimate human greed" and quit anyway. Shortly after that, the on-line stuff got hammered for doing just what I thought they were doing -- cheating.


I decided to try playing again (2019) and have only spent a few hours doing so on PokerstarsNJ, but here are a selection of things that have happened in just a few hours of play. Any one of them... no problem... but all of them in a few hours? Any stat people who can comment on the likelihood of this being legit, please chime in.


Right after my initial deposit, I was killing it. Won a tourney or two. Interestingly, in the first tourney I played -- in the span of about 2 hours -- there were 4 hands with quads at my table (2 of which I won).  I cashed out some of my money and things began to turn, chalked it up to bad luck and put a bit more in. Here is what happened over the course of a few hours of play...


Beaten set over set   AND


Big hands (AK, QQ) got crushed twice after being called by 97off by the same player  (specifically $35 called preflop once and about half that the other time, on a .50c  $1 table with average stack sizes of about $100.  And yes... both times the 97off flopped a straight   AND


All in preflop with AK, called (same player that hit the 97off both times!!)  by KQoff (okay, so that's only 3:1, but remember....same player). Flop is Q blank blank... lost.   AND


Straight flush lost to higher straight flush  (same player). Specifically, I flopped a straight and flush draw and this guy had Qspades and middle pair only. BIG bets couldn't get this player off middle pair and a runner-runner Qhigh flush draw. The river Jspades:  him 8 9 10 J Q,  me 7 8 9 10 J.  He shoved and I called with my straight flush (kind of knowing that this seemed fishy -- my bad). 


And for the past few days, I've noticed that this player ("urnightmare") is on almost every table, every time I log in. And every time he has way more than the buy-in amount.


What are the odds of the same player hitting me with so many low-probability beats so many times within a span of a few hours playing time... and seeming to be crushing almost every table he sits at? I'm not accusing anyone of anything but it seems nearly impossible!










Edited by willyw3w
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xxbossmanxx    2

Do you know how complex the code would be if the cards were not dropped by a RNG?


People already ran million hand studies of the RNG vs. expectation and it is all in line with how randomness works.



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