How do you guys recover from a horrible down swing?

[kzoovet85]

Hey guys,

 

 So not too long ago i was on one of the biggest heaters of my life. In a span of 2 months my ROI was 175%. Profit was over 6K. ( For a micro stakes MTT and cash game player that is huge... especially when you got 5 kiddos) anyway i told my girlfriend as happy as she has been with me for awhile. I told her about the variance and that this run wont last forever. I was just praying that the downswing would be this bad. I feel like i havent cashed in forever and definitely havent come close to a Final table. I'd say im currently on a 2K downswing in MTT's. If it wasnt for 50 NL cash game to keep me up just the little it has. This downswing would be way worse. Anyway. I've tried the not playing so much. Selective game selection. The take a shot in a high roller event. Now I feel kinda lost. My confidence went from sky high and feeling like I could really make a nice run to Unsure if I'm even remotely close to as good as i thought in the first place. My ego is shot and im now second guessing my self in alot of spots I would make a decision in a couple months ago no problem. Any advice would help. For now i guess ill just focus more on my kids and family and when the MISCOOP comes around get back into it. Thanks you guys and hope to hear from you soon 

[PunnyYouSayThat]

On 4/18/2021 at 4:11 PM, kzoovet85 said:

Hey guys,

 

 So not too long ago i was on one of the biggest heaters of my life. In a span of 2 months my ROI was 175%. Profit was over 6K. ( For a micro stakes MTT and cash game player that is huge... especially when you got 5 kiddos) anyway i told my girlfriend as happy as she has been with me for awhile. I told her about the variance and that this run wont last forever. I was just praying that the downswing would be this bad. I feel like i havent cashed in forever and definitely havent come close to a Final table. I'd say im currently on a 2K downswing in MTT's. If it wasnt for 50 NL cash game to keep me up just the little it has. This downswing would be way worse. Anyway. I've tried the not playing so much. Selective game selection. The take a shot in a high roller event. Now I feel kinda lost. My confidence went from sky high and feeling like I could really make a nice run to Unsure if I'm even remotely close to as good as i thought in the first place. My ego is shot and im now second guessing my self in alot of spots I would make a decision in a couple months ago no problem. Any advice would help. For now i guess ill just focus more on my kids and family and when the MISCOOP comes around get back into it. Thanks you guys and hope to hear from you soon 

 

mtt variance really is a strange creature and generally involves a bunch of factors (competition, field size, structure, r&a strategy etc) and can be really absurd sometimes. I think where the disconnect happens is a lot of poker players probably come from some type of video game background where winning happens more frequent. In fact, most games outside of poker will probably yield a much higher winning % than mtts. So imo, it's easy to feel like something is wrong because our brains have been conditioned over years winning at the higher %.

 

It's a good thing you're second guessing yourself, you want to be radically open minded. The biggest trap you can fall into is not questioning your lines because you don't want to damage your ego when in reality you could be overlooking a massive leak you commit frequently. Challenge everything you do imo. To minimize mtt variance, be smart about your rebuy strategy. Example-- Rebuy in the 100r with 10bb stack would a terrible idea. A 100r is generally going to be a tough field on pretty much every network so you'd be lighting money on fire here. Perhaps look into micro dosing psilocybin (the compound in magic mushrooms) and google "ego death" with it. Paul Stamets on Joe Rogan would be a good watch too. Good luck

 

[rungoodgid]

Realise you aren't good at poker and get better by studying....  Horrible downswings are often a result of gambler's fallacy in thinking you're just experiencing a bad run of cards, are playing well and in time you'll catch some run good and wipe out your losses.  Rarely that circumstance IMO.  Poker is a complex game full of intricacy and one that you'll never stop learning about and improving.

[XenonS]

I have a simple way to avoid much caring about downswings with these factors:

- Correct BRM (Bank Roll Management): How much times are you in your right level with the right buy-in?

- Your poker decisions vs. your Variance and resulting downswings which inevitably will happen

In the second point I don't care about downswings as long as my poker decisions are ok, my statistics and tools will tell me that, also my after-studies away from the table. As for variance: Against stronger player than me I'm looking to increase variance whereas against weaker players I avoid bigger variance by folding some +EV spots knowing that I will have more +EV afterwards (espially in MTTs).

Greetings,

[acustaw]

The biggest question I have is, did you move up in stakes and if so how much? The games tend to play differently as you move up. 

[Harlan Reed]

On 4/23/2021 at 6:48 PM, PunnyYouSayThat said:

 

mtt variance really is a strange creature and generally involves a bunch of factors (competition, field size, structure, r&a strategy etc) and can be really absurd sometimes. I think where the disconnect happens is a lot of poker players probably come from some type of video game background where winning happens more frequent. In fact, most games outside of poker will probably yield a much higher winning % than mtts. So imo, it's easy to feel like something is wrong because our brains have been conditioned over years winning at the higher %.

 

It's a good thing you're second guessing yourself, you want to be radically open minded. The biggest trap you can fall into is not questioning your lines because you don't want to damage your ego when in reality you could be overlooking a massive leak you commit frequently. Challenge everything you do imo. To minimize mtt variance, be smart about your rebuy strategy. Example-- Rebuy in the 100r with 10bb stack would a terrible idea. A 100r is generally going to be a tough field on pretty much every network so you'd be lighting money on fire here. Perhaps look into micro dosing psilocybin (the compound in magic mushrooms) and google "ego death" with it. Paul Stamets on Joe Rogan would be a good watch too. Good luck

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Thanks a lot for the explanation.