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Radford999

Folding queens full?

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This hand was from a £60 live tournament last night. 90 runners. 71 left. The tournament is a freezeout. So no entries. The tournament is full of the poker room regulars. Bit of info on villain. He’s a poker room regular. Decent player. I’ve seen him fold a lot of top pairs on the flop, generally playing quite tight and not doing anything out of the ordinary. In one hand i had quads on the river and raised him and he folded top pair and started saying how it’s a freezeout and he doesn’t want to go out this early. He also said this again when involved with another player when he just called with the second nuts on the river. 

So here is the hand. 75k starting stack.

Stack sizes: Hero 98k. CO 64k. BB 84k. Blinds 400/800.

I raise UTG to 2,000 with QcQh.
CO calls
BB squeezes to 7,000 from the BB
I call.
CO calls.

Flop
8d8hKc

Checked around

Turn 7s

Checked around

River Qs

BB bets 4,000
I raise to 17,000
CO folds.

BB thinks for about 10 seconds before moving allin for about 73k.

I did think about it for 2 minutes before folding. His previous comments about not wanting to bust because it‘s a freezeout and folding straights and top pairs i was really adamant he had kings full. I don’t think for one minute he’s doing this with AA or AK. I don’t think there are any 8’s in his range either as he squeezed to 7,000 pre. I’m certain he’s just flatting with 88 and A8. And i don’t think he’s just going to be shoving as a complete bluff. The only hand that makes sense to me is KK. So yeah i ended up folding. I will never know what he had. But i’m pretty confident in my fold. I’d love to here other’s views. Maybe i’m underestimating him? Not sure. Thanks!
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Folding here is not something you should ever consider unless it's a satellite or you are playing for life changing money and you're near the bubble. You have to have 10,000+ hands with a player and be pretty damn sure he is only risking his stack with the nuts to fold here. Even super tight players will do this with a random 8x. Just because he tried to resteal doesn't necessarily narrow hands like A8s or 89s out of his range. It's much less likely because you raised UTG but it's still a $60 buy in and people get bored. I think if you're only ranging KK and 88 given action you aren't giving players enough credit. I think you need to range A8s 20-50% of the time, 89s the same, and your random suited one and two gappers to get an accurate range model. Plus villian might remember the conversation as well and know that you are thinking about their not wanting to risk the stack, and could just be punting off some of the time. I think it's a call for sure.

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live is totally different than online, and ive been in this similar situation before, I don't think he's ever value raising AA here, nor A8etc.  like u said he flats those type hats 88, A8 , 87 etc... 

I don't mind the fold... soul read and it needs to happen live for this type of folds to be better "justified"

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I totally agree with NittyInfinity.
Plus, if he had indeed KK, he played so freaking horrible that I'd bust for not thinking someone could play that hand so badly LOL
I say that for a few reasons: The pot is 3-way, there's a lot of hands that can call at least 2 streets for value (99+, AK, and some 8s, depending on the opponents style) so why slowplay so much, hoping someone will bet? I can see reason for checking flop but I'd definitely go for value on the turn/river with KK there.

On another note, you said: "In one hand i had quads on the river and raised him and he folded top pair." - To me that's a pretty easy fold given the board is paired. I make so much chips in tournaments from those people who can't fold Top/Overpair against a raise in the river. My point here is that this guy apparently knows how to play better than the average folk so I can see him capable of trying to pull off a bluff in that spot.

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