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Everything posted by JoeDeertay

  1. The 5r on tuesdays and thursdays is definitely my favorite by far. I think I've got two 3rds and a 10th in it, with some other semi-deep scores, all being on those 2 days. The 15-minute levels are the nuts imo.
  2. Me likes! Can I has for teh free? Any kind of ETA on when M black will be available?
  3. Hell, with A9 there a really nitty villain's range could be AK, AQ, KK, and 99, and it would probably still be a fold with normal betting.
  4. Well then you must be as good as Moorman. Congrats. That board is probably much more likely that he is beat by a "nit" just by looking at it and not knowing what the action was anyway. He is also likely playing against much better "nits" than the ones who exist at 1/2 live games.
  5. I don't like this line very much at all, unless you think he will be check/jamming a bunch of air for whatever reason. I think I would just fold or jam pre, though.
  6. I cbet as much as I possibly can (I think my stat for the last few months is in the 80-85% range). I also follow up with a lot of 2- and 3-barrels and/or check/raises, though. And another thing - I remember one session Avril said that in the games he plays, replacing a cbet with a check/raise is usually pretty weak, esp from bad players, but I've noticed that it tends to work really well in lower stakes games because people aren't good enough to exploit it.
  7. Oh yeah, and, btw, if "there are 4 hands that beat [you] and 3 hands [you] beat (as you said in an earlier post)," that alone makes the turn an easy snapcall. Also, you said before that if a top 100 ranked player had posted this sick fold then everyone would be on his dick about it. But hey! Top players wouldn't post a hand like this because they would never ever think of folding it in this situation. If they post a sick hero fold, there is actually a good reason for it, and that's way everyone would be amazed or whatever about it.
  8. lol thread. 1) Fold pre. 2) Flatting pre, calling when you flop a hand you are trying to flop, and then folding to a basically pot-sized jam on the turn is pretty much the WORST line you could possibly take here. If you are calling preflop with these stacks, it's so that you can stack someone when you flop big (like here), maybe win a bet with one pair, and win without showdown some of the times you whiff. 3) I don't know where you play 1/2, but IMO Borgata 1/2 players are the "best" in AC and they are STILL awful and would probably jam like AA and KK or even QQ here, making the turn jam an easy call anyway. Or they could be trying to turn some stupid hand into a bluff. Who knows. Don't fold. Take note at showdown if beat.
  9. Explain to me how this is "180 degrees opposite of the truth," because I have read Math of Poker multiple times and even taken notes on it, and that book is one of the main reasons I made that comment. IMO: When you play a tourney, you should only be buying into games you can afford/you are neutral to losing the buy-in. That way going busto in the single tourney should not really matter to you, because it obviously happens at least 80% of the time for most people anyway. Using this logic, the downside of variance really shouldn't matter to you for most of the tourney, at least until ICM starts becoming a major factor, which doesn't really happen until you are very deep in the tourney already anyway. So, by that point, you have an added advantage late with a huge stack, because you can easily put other stacks at risk without exposing much of your own chips by exploiting the ICM considerations and/or risk-averse nature of other players. A larger variance means that you have more potential for getting this big stack on the upside than you would with a lower variance, assuming you have a choice between 2+ lines with identical expectation. The big thing here is that you are taking the highest variance between choices with the same expected value. However, this does NOT mean you should be passing up on a more +EV decision for a worse EV decision just because there is a higher variance involved. If one play has a much lower or even similar variance but is vastly more +EV, then you should probably take that line. However, if one line has only a slightly lower EV but has a much greater variance, then you might go with that choice, because the added advantage of having a big stack could add EV in future hands as well if you win this hand. Also, I do realize what they were trying to say in the book about passing up marginal spots for better ones. IIRC, they advocated passing up marginal high-variance spots early in tournaments when stacks are deep because having the deep stack gives you more opportunity to exploit your skill advantage over the other players. This also kind of goes along with what I am saying, because very often early in tournaments many lower-variance lines probably have a much greater expectation anyway, so you should probably be making those choices. I also think that as the tournament progresses and stacks get shorter they started to pretty much say what I am saying about accepting variance. I remember them saying that they would likely tend to bubble a lot more than normal because they are playing with a higher variance, but they also tend to go much deeper with bigger stacks more often as well when they experience the upside. So, if you can explain to me how either my logic, interpretation of the book, or both are wrong, then I'm happy to hear it. I think this is very important and want to get it right, and would love to hear a good argument proving me wrong. And btw Faded TV I'm not hating on you or anything because based on some of your posts ITT we seam to think very much the same way, but I just don't agree with your answer here.
  10. ROFL @ folding this hand, ever. r/c or shove. I'm trying to get it in pre here, but I'm also not worried about playing postflop if I have to. Like Daize said, I would probably minraise and let some idiot flop top pair with 89 and give me all his chips, or just win with a cbet a lot of the time. The way I see it: if the table is playing really loose-passive when it's cheap for them but probably calling shoves much tighter (which is probably the standard at this point in this tourney), minraise; if the table is just going to call no matter what you raise to, shove; if they are a bunch of LAGtards, minraise; if the table is playing generally tight-passive, shove (because you want to get all the chips in against like 99 instead of having them fold to a cbet most of the time); if they are generally tight-aggro, minraise. Another note - variance is your friend in tournaments. You should welcome it with open arms (assuming you are playing profitably), and trying to avoid it is probably -EV. If you have a choice between two profitable plays with the same expectation, I would recommend the one with a higher variance.
  11. I liked it more as the week went on. It wasn't that hard to get used to 12-tabling with rush MTTs mixed in there, and I loved how deep stacks were late in the tourney. I don't know if I'd permanently change any existing guarantees to rush, but I would probably add some rush freezeouts to my schedule if they created them. Oh, and rush rebuys are, like, the nuts imo.
  12. I bet rs03rs03 knows his true ROI in $1 DONs by now.
  13. Open limping is pretty bad almost all the time, and limping behind a single limper anywhere but maybe the hijack or later is also pretty bad most of the time unless table dynamics are right imo. However, I will say that I do a lot of limping in later positions behind 2+ limpers with most of my range, planning on jabbing at most limped flops and double/triple barreling fairly often. The reason for this is because I feel like if you open over multiple limpers then you are likely going to have to double barrel a lot anyway and it will be much more expensive, and triple barreling a limped pot may be just as costly and will have to happen much less often. Also, you can get a lot more value with some good hands that you otherwise would not get when raising if they flop top pair with like J9 OOP.
  14. News flash: people are still awful at poker.
  15. I understand that there are lots of legitimately good reasons for both jamming and folding, and I'm not saying one or the other is wrong every time. I think it could go either way depending on what his 3betting range is, because I agree with Albatross that this sizing means he wants to play for stacks and it only matters what he wants to play for stacks with. I also understand that we have a ton of play left in our stack if we fold, so considering folding is not out of the question. I think one of the most important things about this hand is finding out who this guy is before you make a decision. I'd be OPRing him or something to see if he is a reg and a winning/losing one, seeing if he has any fluke scores, etc, going in with the assumption that he probably isn't a good player based on his sizing. From what I've seen late in these things, when fish start running good and get some chips, they start going crazy because they think they are invincible or whatever and just start playing a bunch of hands aggressively for no real reason. That being said, there is a chance you could be shoving for value into something like AJ or whatever, but just not 100% of the time. It not really possible to know everything that goes through these donks' heads, and there is always a chance that they have an even wider range than you think or that they will just make some absurd fold as well, even if it's not very likely. However, in these spots I think that they aren't going crazy enough for it to be a good jam when you consider how very likely it is that he is just mashing the nuts here. You don't have a lot of fold equity, and he probably isn't getting out of line often enough for you to have enough equity against his possible ranges to be jamming. I'd pass and use my 30bb+ stack to chip up easily while possibly getting to see his hand here anyway and making a note of it, or seeing him play more hands and getting more info if I don't. If he had made a "normal" 3bet then it would be a different story, but he didn't, and that must be considered before any other factors instead of just blindly jamming because you have AK.
  16. Given what tourney this is, stack sizes, and the action, I think I'm folding here without a very solid read that this guy is a complete moron.
  17. Jamming anywhere is awful. Don't forget that he cold called a 3bet pre and now he is going crazy into the 3bettor on multiple streets. Against a large majority of players in this tourney I would probably just fold to the double barrel, but calling probably isn't terrible. As played, after getting to showdown and seeing his cards I am definitely making a note and OPRing him, then trying to find a way to exploit this in the future.
  18. bump Any kind of news/progress on this? I just regged for tomorrow's FTP session and got tilted that I won't start regging for stars until right before i start at noon and I'll have to do it again at like 6.
  19. This is completely wrong. You should not ever willingly let yourself get this short and just wait for a "premium" hand to double up. You should be shoving with fold equity long before you have an M of like 2. As for the OP, I'm probably shoving ATC here and and a lot of other positions with this stack.
  20. I'm winning the DNG tomorrow. You heard it here first, fellas.
  21. Get over it morons. There is nothing wrong with this and, like Phil told Doyle, it is putting money in our pockets (and A LOT in his). Get over it, he is doing you a favor while at least attempting to have fun and be entertaining. Phil Hellmuth is amazing for poker and I hope he never goes away in my poker playing lifetime.
  22. I'll probably open most broadway hands from any position by this level, but flatting them is COMPLETELY different and situational, esp OOP.
  23. The play is good with a proper stack imo, but I'd rather have a bigger stack to be trying it here. I'm not the biggest fan of jamming air with < 1/2 pot on the riv without a really, really solid read. Also, I feel like it works better turning weak made hands into bluffs than just planning on basically floating to double barrel 2 streets trying to make someone fold a flopped top pair or something.

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