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Everything posted by JoeDeertay

  1. They have refunded for stuff like this before, but not always (for me anyway).
  2. yeah I was just about to send an email asking why I could connect but not log in, and now it's just not connecting.
  3. This is definitely after the rebuy hour because iirc the last rebuy level is 40/80 on tilt. If that's true, then I'd just fold. But if I'm wrong and you can still rebuy then I don't mind the shove.
  4. sfhud He flipped over AK because it's an easy call there against most people. If you are shoving TT+ AQs and AK there he is 43.577%, and that's assuming you are merging KK and AA in such a field as the Main Event and never shoving AQo. Accounting for the (apparently very small) possibility that you aren't always shoving KK and AA, you may be shoving some AQo, your actual range is slightly wider and may even include something like 99 or AJs even sometimes, and you might just be tooling out for whatever reason, it ends up being a call. And that is against a "tight" player imo (but apparently not as tight as you...are you honestly just mucking AQs here?). The chance that you are "too" tight is probably overcompensated by the chance that you are just some maniac or just have a range that is slightly wider than he thinks. I mean, a lot of people might be jamming 66 there these days, so him giving you some credit for not being a nit after the maybe 50 hands he might have played with you isn't out of line by any means. It must really suck knowing you are a better player than everyone but just run worse than everyone else.
  5. You were flamed because your ranges and analysis of the hand were flat out wrong. The fact the Sean showed up with AJ proves how wrong your really were.
  6. Why are some of you acting like 37bb is a shortstack or something? That is still PLENTY of chips to keep dozing with on a FT bubble. I doubt that doubling up here really gives you THAT much more of an edge than you would have with 37bb if you are a good player, especially if you think you are the best player left. I'm thinking that this is likely a fold.
  7. Voted and shared on Facebook. Get your friends to see it too and they might vote if they know and like you, even if they don't play! Spreading the word to anyone who can see it couldn't hurt the cause.
  8. Well, this is exactly why tournament poker (and probably poker in general) will always be profitable. People like this who are so incredibly and obviously wrong refuse to believe they are wrong and terribly misuse even fundamental concepts. 1) As someone else has previously stated, you can't put people on such narrow ranges on such a limited information set. Also, you are completely disregarding the fact that you might even have the wrong read, and this must be accounted for. No matter how good someone may be, they are never right 100% of the time. Look up Bayesian probability for a mathematical explanation of how to quantify this kind of uncertainty. 2) Your logic about why the villains have such narrow ranges is pretty absurd and incorrect. Buchanan alone pretty much always has a wider range than you assigned to him, let alone the other villains likely being a little wider as well. It is not realistic to put a hard peg on a player's style of play in such a short period of time. You can have a decent idea, but you cannot be exact, which means there is uncertainty. 3) You fail to realize that reraising/shoving AKs preflop is much more profitable than flatting with it (and this can likely be proved). 4) You can throw around these manipulated pokerstove outputs all you want to achieve some kind of confirmation bias, which is probably just coming from your being results oriented because playing this way has somehow worked for you in the past and you have been successful for whatever reason, but it doesn't mean you are right. el oh el live players hatin on da online kids. Don't come here asking what to do when you already have an answer and then say we are wrong when we don't tell you what you want to hear.
  9. Now the next time I play live and something like this happens, I'm definitely high-fiving the dealer. Sounds like so much fun. Oh yeah, and, don't fold. lol
  10. There aren't THAT many "scary" turns imo, and just because a turn may be a scare card doesn't mean our equity suddenly turns to shit. I like letting him bluff these "scare cards" on the turn, or at the very least having position and letting him make a mistake, instead of just shoving flop and flipping against a calling range.
  11. I'm not folding flop, and I'm probably flatting and not folding on a non-4,6,9 turn.
  12. smd, hud, or a combination of the two are my favorite things to type into the chat box
  13. This actually does tilt me very often lol. I'll be sitting around being patient while every other moron at the table is giving this fish more chips because they try and "outplay" him by calling down bottom pair when he barrels 4th pair or something, then he either stops running well and goes busto before I can get anything out of him or he busts too many people and the table eventually breaks. It's always very annoying.
  14. Was his name Men Nguyen by any chance?
  15. I truly believe that poker will always be profitable (in our lifetimes, anyway) no matter what information is out there for the donks to learn. This is mainly because the game isn't even close to being mathematically solved and therefore the biggest edge comes from adjusting to your opponents and maximally exploiting however they are playing. I think all this information is doing is creating paradigms as to what is "standard" for a certain period of time, and then everyone starts doing what is "standard," including the fish. The only difference between the fish and the good regs is that the fish don't apply the concepts they learn correctly right away (if they ever do anyway), and therefore they are easy to exploit in the short run once the paradigm shifts. So that means you can always maximize your edge by recognizing the paradigm shifts as quickly as possible and finding out how to maximize your edge against the "standard fish." The ones who will rise to the top and stay there are the ones who are constantly studying the information that is available and always changing their game to compensate for how other people are learning and changing. Basically, those who are the most dedicated and put in the most work are going to be the most successful in the long run. Once you stop learning, you are going to start falling behind, regardless of how good you get/think you are at any given point in time. That's just my opinion, but I might just be biased because I also think that on average people are too stupid for their own good in one way or another (and there is evidence supporting that everywhere in the world). That likely translates into poker as well, so for every fish that might turn himself into a somewhat decent player a new dumbass is born into the poker world.
  16. sicktight that's exactly what I would do when I was playing on my own dime the day/night before However, I still think that the variance around your ABI depends on the size of your bankroll, because with a deeper roll a higher variance will mean that a session takes up less of your roll, so your risk of ruin is lower, and therefore you can afford a higher variance.
  17. probably not with that attitude...
  18. Some people multi-table just to keep themselves from getting FPS, because if they are playing 12 tables they really don't have time for it. But seriously, multitabling is pretty much the primary advantage playing online has over playing live, because it can greatly increase your profits/hourly. Even if you can only play your A-game on every table while just 4-tabling, for example, that is still increasing your profits four-fold over playing live. You also improve MUCH faster.
  19. The way you achieve your ABI is pretty much based only on what kind of variance in buy-ins you want to subject yourself to, so it's really up to you imo. I mean, the amount you deviate in both directions from your ABI is pretty much an indirect definition of variance. It probably also depends on the kind of volume you play and what kind of BRM you use regarding what kind of variance is safe for you. For example, I would imagine that if you use say a 400 BI rule for your ABI and play 40 tourneys a day, your buy-in variance is going to be MUCH higher than someone who uses a 200 BI rule for their ABI and plays 15 tourneys a day.
  20. this is 5/10c he's not bluffing the river
  21. I'm probably just going to fold. He could flat flop with any king and any set, as well as mid pocket pairs or whatever to try picking off a cbet. However, from what I've seen people don't really bet with hand that have marginal showdown value in these spots (such as 77-TT, are maybe even A hi if they're bold enough) and will just check back turns instead of betting, because betting really doesn't accomplish much for them either and even a bad player knows that. That means he is either value betting or bluffing with air that he floated on the flop, and I seriously doubt that people are floating you enough in this tourney to be calling here hoping for a free showdown. So I'd just pitch it.

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