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Everything posted by roflshove

  1. This is a fold every time and its not even close. Your bet sizing considering the dryness of the flop isnt on the small side discouraging floats. When he checks back the turn he usually has showdown value as he is betting all his floats here. When he bets river we have to assume he is turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff for a huge sized bet when a small bet should get it done considering how the hand played that is so optimistic and i think hes showing you minimum a K here almost always. Good fold IMO i think ur line is fine and if hes a tight shark hes flatting of the 3bet with effective stacks has me way more worried then a jam.
  2. I cant figure out how to get my holdem manager working due to postgres. It says wrong password and i never got an email saying which user and password i need to use. Anybody else that install holdem manager 2 get this problem?
  3. Good blog Ben dont give much thought to this ranking system as it pays no creedence to profit or roi just deep finishes. Hence you could be well ranked and a terrible losing player. Keep grinding...
  4. cashing 4/15 times is decent for live poker. 15 tournaments is not a sample size though and you need to play alot more tournaments before you can get any clarity in your results. GL at the tables
  5. clearly it is going to make me money numbers dont lie. if you had of read the post properly maybe you would have learned something. Checking behind and value betting Q's and J's is something i could of factored in which would give more merit to checking however i dont expect to be getting called very often as the villain was primaily chasing his draw.
  6. Here is some reflective analysis of a hand i played in a2/3 live cash game.. I had been playing at the table for a while and had a good read on my opponent. 3 limpers in front i wake up with QcJc in the Cutoff i limp behind and BB makes 15 every1 calls 5 runners. flop comes down 679 with 2 clubs BB fires out 20 and gets one caller. BB has about 250 behind and callers has about 270. I got them both easily covered. This looks oh so weak and i decide to make it 110 BB instantly folds and caller tanks for ages and decides to call. At this point: Pot = 305-(8rake) = 297 I figure he prob has a pair and a straight draw. Turn is Ks the board now reads 6x 7c 9c Ks Guy checks..... I am eliminating 2 pair combos that hit the king because villain is shoving those i am also eliminating pair/fd combos fd/sd combos because he jams flop. That being said there is 297 dollars in the pot and villain has 135 left i got two options shove or check. Lets see which is better. If i check i have a lot of outs but i am probably getting paid on very few of them Q or J i will check behind and take the pot clubs he will probably fold if i jam. the only nut card is the 10 which will give the villain 2 pair or a straight most likely. So lets figure out my equity in checking. Board: 6s 7c 9c Ks Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 39.410% 39.41% 00.00% 815 0.00 { QcJc } Hand 1: 60.590% 60.59% 00.00% 1253 0.00 { Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, T9o, 98o, 86o+ } Current equity against a given range before the river. 4 scenarios: i check the river with showdown value. Outs 6:{QQQJJJ} 1.0 x $297 x (6/44) = +$40.5 I jam the river on a scarecard as a bluff. where scarecards included Non club Aces, pairs of the board = Bluff Outs = 11 Aces x 3 = never calling 0%. Pairs of the board x 8 = calling when makes 3 of a kind = 25% Expected result= So A falls = 1.0x x $297 x(3/44) = +$20.25 Board Pairs He folds = .75 x $297 x(8/44) = +$40.5 Boar Pairs He calls = .25 x $-584 x(8/44) =-$26.55 (Negative because i lose the pot) Total = $+34.2 I jam the river for value when i make my hand. Get called = 4 outs {10,10,10,10} = 1.0 x $584 x(4/44) = $+53.10 Get folds = 8 Outs{Non 10 clubs} = 1.0 x $297 x(8/44) = $+54 Total = +$107.10 I check behind on the river on blank cards. Outs = 13 = 1.0x -$297 x (13/44)= -$87.75 Checking expected total without a plan = +$58.60 Checking expected total with a plan = +$92.80 so with a thought out +EV bluff in mind i expect to win +$92.80 going to the river not bad right. Given my opponent tanked for a long time before making the call on the flop we have reason to believe he is going to fold a large percentage of the time on the turn. I expected with the amount my opponent had behind he would fold about 40-50% of the time. Folds 40% = Folds = $297 x (.4) = +$118.8 Calls and i lose = {26 outs} = (.6) x $-584 x (.6059) = -$212.307 Calls and i win = {18 outs} = (.6) x $584 x (.3941) = +$138.09 Total = +$44.82 Folds 50% = Folds = $297 x (.5) = +$148.5 Calls and i lose = (.5) x $-584 x (.6059) = -$176.9 Calls and i win = (.5) x $584 x (.3941) = +$115.07 Total =+$87.48 So we can see its close and it really depends on how often you think you will get him to fold in this situation. Baring in mind if you arn't planning to bluff any scarecards than shoving is the better play. Anyways the result???? I snap shoved and he tanked for ages before another player at the table called the clock on him he made the call with 1 second left sigh........ Ac on the river BOOOM! ship me the $584 dollar pot! my opponent showed the 86o and I asked my him how often he would fold and he said he was 50/50. Im a Genius Any feedback appreciated GL at the tables..
  7. not LOLs that James Woods wins at all i spew at him winning sure his a nice guy an all. But every single other person playing 1/2 that day 125K would dramatically change there life. James woods will probably blow it on a chandelier for his entry room. Sick story OP
  8. roflshove


    the post was intended as a in vaccum is it +ev scenario anyways i folded. I was under the opinion it was very close i prob shove HJ i prob shove 11bbs.
  9. roflshove


    PokerStars Game #62863472831: Tournament #423010404, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2011/06/03 4:18:36 AEST [2011/06/02 14:18:36 ET] Table '423010404 177' 9-max Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: ROFLshove (20656 in chips) Seat 2: P.NonGrata (23027 in chips) Seat 3: Bruno GT (9870 in chips) Seat 4: fekkyu (23815 in chips) Seat 5: Tzitzi989 (15622 in chips) Seat 6: Zork113 (9693 in chips) Seat 7: Drugo 24 (22417 in chips) Seat 8: pan_asp (62246 in chips) Seat 9: Tom Dallee (6017 in chips) ROFLshove: posts the ante 200 P.NonGrata: posts the ante 200 Bruno GT: posts the ante 200 fekkyu: posts the ante 200 Tzitzi989: posts the ante 200 Zork113: posts the ante 200 Drugo 24: posts the ante 200 pan_asp: posts the ante 200 Tom Dallee: posts the ante 200 Tzitzi989: posts small blind 800 Zork113: posts big blind 1600 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to ROFLshove [Qc Jd] Drugo 24: folds pan_asp: folds Tom Dallee: folds ROFLshove:
  10. BIG 22 13 left PokerStars Game #62841362455: Tournament #423010393, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (8000/16000) - 2011/06/02 8:38:59 AEST [2011/06/01 18:38:59 ET] Table '423010393 162' 9-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: ROFLshove (439574 in chips) Seat 2: BRRRAUN (643703 in chips) Seat 3: nbveh123 (538443 in chips) Seat 4: LatzFatz (123104 in chips) Seat 7: joelyroly16 (388719 in chips) Seat 8: mateoL1 (506609 in chips) ROFLshove: posts the ante 1600 BRRRAUN: posts the ante 1600 nbveh123: posts the ante 1600 LatzFatz: posts the ante 1600 joelyroly16: posts the ante 1600 mateoL1: posts the ante 1600 mateoL1: posts small blind 8000 ROFLshove: posts big blind 16000 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to ROFLshove [Td Th] BRRRAUN: raises 16000 to 32000 nbveh123: folds LatzFatz: raises 89504 to 121504 and is all-in joelyroly16: folds mateoL1: folds ROFLshove: raises 316470 to 437974 and is all-in BRRRAUN: calls 405974 *** FLOP *** [7s Qc 6c] *** TURN *** [7s Qc 6c] [7d] *** RIVER *** [7s Qc 6c 7d] [4d] *** SHOW DOWN *** ROFLshove: shows [Td Th] (two pair, Tens and Sevens) BRRRAUN: shows [Ah As] (two pair, Aces and Sevens) BRRRAUN collected 632940 from side pot LatzFatz: shows [9c 9s] (two pair, Nines and Sevens) BRRRAUN collected 382112 from main pot ROFLshove finished the tournament in 12th place and received $350.37. LatzFatz finished the tournament in 13th place and received $267.93. *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 1015052 Main pot 382112. Side pot 632940. | Rake 0 Board [7s Qc 6c 7d 4d] Seat 1: ROFLshove (big blind) showed [Td Th] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sevens Seat 2: BRRRAUN showed [Ah As] and won (1015052) with two pair, Aces and Sevens Seat 3: nbveh123 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: LatzFatz showed [9c 9s] and lost with two pair, Nines and Sevens Seat 7: joelyroly16 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: mateoL1 (small blind) folded before Flop pretty gutted a final table would represent alot of my roll should add BRAUN was quite laggy
  11. great well jcamby i remember being deep in an 11R and thinking who is this Ahole that keeps 3betting me. a) how important do you think it is to trust your reads and 4bet Jam bluff. 5bet jam bluff etc. b) what things do you think takes a low-mid grinder to the next level. GL in future and with wsop mate.

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