I just want to post this here for future reference:
"Let me run some rough estimated numbers. say the tourney gets 400 people, and after rake the prizepool will be 384 buyins. there are probably 50 fish with an average ROI of -40% (they win 30 buyins back), so thats 354 buyins left. then there are 250 ok-good tourney regs with a -10% ROI on average (they win 225 buyins back), leaving 129 buyins for the top 100 tourney players. meaning the average ROI for the top 100 players is 29%. id imagine the top 15 guys (ivey, ike, seidel, mercier, marchese etc) maybe have 40%+ ROIs capping out around the 75% area and the top 5 maybe 75% and the other 85 are all in the 10-40 range.
now im gonna list out ~75-80 great players (no offense if i didnt list someone, i just wrote out a bunch of names i saw on a list and off the top of my head) who im 95%+ certain will be playing this tournament given how close it is to the main event. tell me where you think galen ranks amongst them in terms of ROI. keep in mind galen has played less than 100 live tournaments, was basically only a pro for 2 years, has a 24% ROI in online tournaments and has no online high stakes cash experience.
ivey, mercier, seidel, katchalov, sorel, moorman, marchese, haxton, seiver, bonomo, timex, glantz, schulman, elky, trickett, raptor, menlo, gboro, ben86, sauce1234, djk, ben lamb, yevgheniy, genius28, galfond, jungleman, stinger, cole south, olivier busquet, andrew robl, lee markholt, chris klodnicki, daniel alaei, will reynolds, will molson, aejones, tjbentham, nanonoko, 0human0, isildur, terken, jeans89, doc sands, jason koon, dan smith, steve odwyer, shawn buchanan, jon duhamel, vanessa selbst, sam stein, luckychewy, bryn kenney, floes, amak316, mig.com, charder, stevie444, apestyles, ender555, taypaur, elio fox, bakes, jake cody, benyamine, joe tehan, antonius, shaun deeb, btherecom, john monnette, tim0thee, brianm15, pokerjamers, joe tehan, brian rast, basebaldy, chris moore, scott clements, matt waxman, jjprodigy.
giving him every benefit of the doubt id still have him ranked at best around #40 or in a group similar to those guys #25-#60. also consider there are probably 20+ very good cash game players both live and online that will show up that im not thinking of that have an edge in this tournament. guys like king10ofclubs or shane rose. theres simply no way its possible for him to have a 61% ROI in this tournament."