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Short stacked flopping trips, facing action when the flush hits ont he turn.........
I like the line you took and you can't fold so short stacked you have the best hand usually.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 18th, 2017
JJ in near to bubble phase
I believe the hand was played fine although I think your logic for shoving the turn is not correct. You said you think he can fold a higher pair - Not only is it unlikely that he has a higher pair with the preflop action, but even if he did flat call AA/KK then there is no way will he ever fold a higher pair than yours unless he is a very paranoid player. Also, vs a villain who loves to flat I would prefer to size the 3 bet bigger, having a vulnerable hand and being out of position especially.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 18th, 2017
This result belongs to a section you don't have read access to.
TPTK facing river shove by fishy player
I feel like my instinct makes me want to call this river. It seems like a lot of the hands that beat you would have raised earlier on this texture. Thinking about hands that could play this way and beat you its either 34 or A6, and you have a blocker to A6. Unlikely hands that beat you: 78dd, sets, 2 pairs.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 7th, 2017
Too spewy shoving JJ´s 16bb and no fold equity
Yeah I would not overthink this spot unless the UTG and CO are nits as a few have already said. Phil Hellmuth I'm pretty sure would be folding this one though.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 7th, 2017
ITM Hand From Super Tuesday Mini $109
Yeah not a fan of the call pre, just looking at the stacks behind you, a couple of stations and an agg big stack. Flop call is fine. I'm not sure what you get value from by betting turn, or what flop calling ranges you protect against. Not to mention that UTG can jam over any bet on the turn with his stack. But UTG has plenty of give ups, and BB did call flop so I guess bet it and see if we can get BB to call down. River I think you have virtually no 5's, and UTG should not have any 5's, but BB has a few 5's in his range. Your hand is looking exactly like TT after you check the turn, and ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 17th, 2017
88 on the button vs 2 limpers 25bbs
Actually this is quite standard and I think doing anything else here is asking for trouble. The only time this spot is a bit tough is if the SB is a nit, in which case it is better to raise / fold (to the SB's NIT jamming range)...but if you do that, then MP2 will almost certainly flat any raise you do, which can get ugly, but you still have position, and I guess thats just the spot you will be in if the SB is NIT.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 17th, 2017
Article: PokerCentral Partners with ESPN for WSOP; No More November Nine
This is great. Do we still get to keep Lon and Norm as I love those two.
Posted in: vBCms Comments
Sagacious Man
May 15th, 2017
Would you play this any different?
You can make an exploitative check back here. Thinking of hands he can call you with if you jam the river: 1. he would have raised the turn if he had a set. 2. He doesn't have AQ or AJ as they would have raised preflop. 3. You are only missing value from A2 and A5, everything else he should fold. Not always easy to think in the moment but I think its a sigh check back.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 14th, 2017
Importance of Bankroll
recreational player here. I agree, use bankroll management. Continually depositing just feels dirty. Even if it is only small deposits at a time. Just deposit 100 or 200 and just grind the little ones until you can move up. It is satisfying 'working' your way up and much better psychologically.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 13th, 2017
test
testing to see if mods delete your thread' :D
Posted in: Poker Community
Sagacious Man
May 12th, 2017
PocketFives Awarding $50,000 Cash Bonus for SCOOP-Powerfest Double
Does it have to be both on the same day' or can you FT one on the 14th and the other on the 21st' Not that I think I can do it, but just curious lol
Posted in: Poker Sites
Sagacious Man
May 11th, 2017
Humour me on downswings
I agree with the advice of dropping stakes 100% (playing smaller field sizes where possible as well, to reduce variance even more). You feel 'safer' playing the cheap buy ins, the fields are softer, and the psychological impact of a downswing is muted. This can also let you build up a bankroll again.
Posted in: Poker Community
Sagacious Man
May 11th, 2017
$5.50 NLHE [Turbo], $3K Gtd - 72 Players Remaining Hand Analysis
Mandatory call, due to the fact that he is extremely unlikely to have a better pair. Even if you are really good I don't think you can pass up on this spot, it is mostly a flip, if you are certain it is a flip I think you should take it with your stack size. The only case you can make for backing out of a flip is if the rest of the table is really soft and you are dominating (unlikely as you only have 22bbs), or if there are ICM considerations (there are not since there is still 70 players left). It is just variance that you lost sometimes this happens.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 9th, 2017
preparation for scoop
I am not speaking from experience here, just speculating: Id say for the phase 2 there will be a more players sitting out than usual creating some interesting steal and resteal spots. Also get the feeling that there will be a few players being looser than normal at least in the first 2 hours as they may be indifferent about playing that day.. especially in an $11 phase which will probably have thousands in the phase 2 and 8-10 hours of play to finish it. Hmmm feels like the phases could be a bit juicy
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 9th, 2017
Calling an UTG 15bb shove with AQo?
Id be calling. AJ, ATs and pairs lower than your kicker show up enough that it is worth it to get it in and attempt to increase your stack (in my opinion)
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 9th, 2017
Please stop raising my posts!
Haha this thread. I remember when this happened to me a while ago, I didn't like it either!
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
May 9th, 2017
Final table 5 left and AQo
He certainly does have a raise/fold range in this spot. He could raise anything that looks nice and maybe he even intends to fold the bottom of his range to the 10bb stack.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 19th, 2016
Would you call this turn bet?
Id raise bigger preflop, like 9bb. On the flop I would have shoved over the check raise, especially when you only bet less than half pot on the flop and that could induce him. Unlucky if he has a set. The turn is not a situation we should be in, so I think just focus on preflop and flop play. If I woke up in this position I guess I'd just sigh call off, because of the pot size and because you played your hand weirdly which could induce weirdness from him. Hopefully he has a weird overplayed hand or a draw.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 13th, 2016
Was this just a spew (with aqo) that worked?
I just don't like it, you get called by better and lose money when he folds worse hands. I can't see him folding a King, there are draws on the board so he has to call if he's check raising as draws are in your range. I also would not expect him to be check raise folding a draw ever, he has to call 33k to win 77k from the pot so he would call off instantly. I think he either had nothing or had a weaker hand that he randomly decided to play aggressively.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 13th, 2016
TPGK on wet board vs fish $4.50 180 man
You say he is a fish but what type of fish, is he aggro fish or passive' Mathematically I'd say he has more combos of Tx / weaker Jx / 9x / clubs than he has strong made hands, so I would get it in.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 13th, 2016
KK strat pre-fl: early in t. 159 bb, 3-way, in pos (BU). ideal raise size?
I think I raise about 380 ish about the same but you made me think about it. Maybe it is better to make it a bit cheaper say 330 or so and get some value post flop.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 13th, 2016
good player min raising with 12bb
Folding never. Very easy reship against any player on the button
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Jun 6th, 2016
Gripsed/Staples
Not 'ratting anyone out' applies to criminals where they are all doing the same wrong thing. Here we have people doing their stream legit and then 1 person who is (allegedly) doing something shady, so they can rat him out if they want.
Posted in: Poker Community
Sagacious Man
Mar 26th, 2016
loosing control late MTT
1. It is anxiety, because it is so suspenseful deep in MTT, and adrenaline is running, you sabotage it so that you can be free of the anticipation/anxiety. 2. Fold turn - You said he was a calling station, and he 3bet you preflop and bet into you on the turn, so your second pair is way behind.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Mar 15th, 2016
One more: You may be no Billy Crystal, but Analyze this please.
4x raise off that stack = does not want to see a flop (mid pair) but is not folding preflop
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Mar 15th, 2016
30 Session Challenge! 20k to win ! (mtts/180)
UPDATES Please
Posted in: Poker Community
Sagacious Man
Oct 12th, 2015
weak Ax post
I don't know about that, not this deep in a tournament in a valuable multiway pot..giving up the betting lead. Being the big stack deep in a major, you can leverage that and make them feel like they have to commit their whole stack just by c betting. It really puts pressure on the others to have a big hand to continue, so you can't just give up so easily I think. This hand is also very easy to play with the effective stack sizes just bet/fold or if called check fold turn as they are unlikely to continue with worse on this dry flop. That said though, I don't hate your play that much as you ...
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Oct 12th, 2015
In BB vs UTG
Yeah flat pre against a loose opener utg and check shove this flop is great and I love it, especially that flop which should not help his range at all. I would have done exactly the same thing. There is the threat of domination if you flop a king of course but we have to not be too picky and take that risk being so short I think. I think shoving pre is quite risky as you only have a few chips and can be snapped pretty wide. His utg range includes some hands he will fold to your shove of course but probably less weaker hands than if he raised in later position.
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Oct 8th, 2015
I will play the Red Spade Open tomorrow!!!
Actually most hands that need to bluff would have folded turn most likely, so I don't think he has a bluff here often. But there are worse hands that can raise for value against your weak river line. I still think you will have an easier decision if you fix your sizing, and also more value when you are called by worse hands
Posted in: Poker Advice
Sagacious Man
Oct 6th, 2015