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    Been on hiatus since 2009. Returning in earnest to the online scene with the advent of online NJ poker!
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    Business owner, Poker player and instructor.
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    NL HE
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    NL HE MTTs, $100-$200


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  1. WillisNYC is an instructor at PokerMentors.com. When I first started playing poker, everything was about the odds. I played limit ring a lot and needed to know if certain calls were justified. My first poker book listed all those 'drawing' odds in a neat little chart that I copied and taped to the side of my computer monitor. It stayed there until I memorized those numbers and hard coded them into my brain. When I started playing a lot more NL ring, those numbers helped me to make good decisions quickly. Below is a copy of that chart with some explanations. Outs Odds w/2 cards Odds w/1 card Examples 21 70.1% 45.7% Open end str8 flush draw with 2 overs 20 67.5% 43.5% 19 65.0% 41.3% 18 62.4% 39.1% 17 59.8% 37.0% 16 57% 34.8% 15 54.1% 32.6% Open end str8 flush draw 14 51.2% 30.4% 13 48.1% 28.3% 12 45.0% 26.1% Flush draw with one over 11 41.7% 23.9% 10 38.4% 21.7% Flopped set, missed turn, need FH 9 35.0% 19.6% Flush draw 8 31.5% 17.4% Open end Str8 draw or double gut 7 27.8% 15.2% Flopped a set, need a FH to win 6 24.1% 13.0% 5 20.4% 10.9% Have a pr, need to pr your kicker 4 16.5% 8.7% Inside (gutshot) straight draw 3 12.5% 6.5% 2 8.4% 4.3% You have pp and need a set 1 4.3% 2.2% You also need some other numbers 'hard-wired' about preflop odds for different types of starting hands. The odds of flopping a full house or other stronger hand are so low (.09% or less) as to be considered insignificant. However, the following stats are VERY significant. For instance, if you are heads up, what are the chances that your opponent has at least a pair after the flop? The answer is 31.2%---1 time of 17 he has a pp, and the other times he hits one of his hole cards. A pair on the board doesn't count. You will be dealt a pocket pair once every 17 hands and AA once every 221 hands. If you have a pocket pair (pp) and need a set on the flop to continue, the chance of hitting it is 12.5% or 1 chance in 8. The flop has a pair, such as KKQ. What are the odds of your opponent having another K? 1.347% or 74 to 1 AGAINST. If you have unpaired cards, how often will you flop 2 pair (not counting a board pair)? 2% or 50 to 1 against! Your cards are both the same suit, what are the chances of flopping a flush draw? 10.944% or 8.13 to 1 against. With paired connectors, you have the following chances: 'Made' hands: flopping full house: 0.09% flopping flush: 0.8% flopping straight: 1.3% flopping trips: 1.3% flopping two pair: 2.02% Draws: flopping open ended draw: 10.4% flopping flush draw: 10.9% Hence, 5.5% of the time, you will flop a made 'hand,' but 21.3% of the 26.8% (or 80%) of the time you flop a 'hand,' it will still be a draw with about a 1/3 chance of the draw completing by the river. If you don't already have all these numbers hardwired into your brain, I suggest that you copy this chart and tape it to your monitor as I did when I was a beginning poker player.

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