WillisNYC is an instructor at PokerMentors.com.
When I first started playing poker, everything was about the odds. I played limit ring a lot and needed to know if certain calls were justified. My first poker book listed all those 'drawing' odds in a neat little chart that I copied and taped to the side of my computer monitor. It stayed there until I memorized those numbers and hard coded them into my brain. When I started playing a lot more NL ring, those numbers helped me to make good decisions quickly. Below is a copy of that chart with some explanations.
Outs Odds w/2 cards Odds w/1 card Examples
21 70.1% 45.7% Open end str8 flush draw with 2 overs
20 67.5% 43.5%
19 65.0% 41.3%
18 62.4% 39.1%
17 59.8% 37.0%
16 57% 34.8%
15 54.1% 32.6% Open end str8 flush draw
14 51.2% 30.4%
13 48.1% 28.3%
12 45.0% 26.1% Flush draw with one over
11 41.7% 23.9%
10 38.4% 21.7% Flopped set, missed turn, need FH
9 35.0% 19.6% Flush draw
8 31.5% 17.4% Open end Str8 draw or double gut
7 27.8% 15.2% Flopped a set, need a FH to win
6 24.1% 13.0%
5 20.4% 10.9% Have a pr, need to pr your kicker
4 16.5% 8.7% Inside (gutshot) straight draw
3 12.5% 6.5%
2 8.4% 4.3% You have pp and need a set
1 4.3% 2.2%
You also need some other numbers 'hard-wired' about preflop odds for different types of starting hands.
The odds of flopping a full house or other stronger hand are so low (.09% or less) as to be considered insignificant.
However, the following stats are VERY significant.
For instance, if you are heads up, what are the chances that your opponent has at least a pair after the flop? The answer is 31.2%---1 time of 17 he has a pp, and the other times he hits one of his hole cards. A pair on the board doesn't count.
You will be dealt a pocket pair once every 17 hands and AA once every 221 hands.
If you have a pocket pair (pp) and need a set on the flop to continue, the chance of hitting it is 12.5% or 1 chance in 8.
The flop has a pair, such as KKQ. What are the odds of your opponent having another K? 1.347% or 74 to 1 AGAINST.
If you have unpaired cards, how often will you flop 2 pair (not counting a board pair)? 2% or 50 to 1 against!
Your cards are both the same suit, what are the chances of flopping a flush draw? 10.944% or 8.13 to 1 against.
With paired connectors, you have the following chances:
'Made' hands:
flopping full house: 0.09%
flopping flush: 0.8%
flopping straight: 1.3%
flopping trips: 1.3%
flopping two pair: 2.02%
Draws:
flopping open ended draw: 10.4%
flopping flush draw: 10.9%
Hence, 5.5% of the time, you will flop a made 'hand,' but 21.3% of the 26.8% (or 80%) of the time you flop a 'hand,' it will still be a draw with about a 1/3 chance of the draw completing by the river.
If you don't already have all these numbers hardwired into your brain, I suggest that you copy this chart and tape it to your monitor as I did when I was a beginning poker player.
