The following hand analysis comes from the team at 2CardsCollege pro poker training.

https://www.weaktight.com/h/56387428d390430c368b4672

We only played 94 hands with the villain, but he is known to be a good regular. He has Call open BB 38(8) and his aggression frequency increases on the turn and the river. He does not like giving up without a fight post-flop. This is the hand from the $162 Sunday 6-Max on PokerStars.

Let’s start with defining the villain’s call range:

I think this is how the villain would polarize his 3-bet range SB vs BB (these hands are marked on the screenshot with a 50/50 probability; he may 3-bet with some of them less often, but it does not matter for such a wide range). I don’t like the idea of turning third pair into a bluff right away because I think the villain would often resist me on a flop like this. Overall, I would be able to evaluate my equity against the villain’s range on many turn cards because not many turn cards would strengthen his range; he already has a lot of value combos on this board.

I think the villain would bluff widely into my check since I’m representing a capped range; in his opinion, my checking range contains middle and low pairs and Ax hands and maybe some gutshots. To defend my check range in this spot, I could check QJ, KK, AA, QQ, and middle/low pairs 50% of the time.

The explanation is that the opponents rarely give up on such textures and often bet when we check, so we can lower our c-bet on this texture. In this case, we may assume that by betting, we don’t get enough value from the second and third pairs, but they don’t always pay three barrels and when we check, the villain bluffs with a wide range, sometimes including bluffs with no equity.

The villain’s bet range into a missed c-bet:

I left the villain’s zero-equity bluffs, Ax hands, and numerous backdoors out of the range on purpose. Otherwise, it would be an obvious +EV decision to call in 100% of the cases. So far, we have 41% of equity against the villain’s range. It is very important to note that during this hand, even those who played a lot of tables had fewer tables left; therefore, they were paying more attention to the tables and the villain used the time-bank. While he was thinking, I thought he was going to make a huge bet on the turn and most likely overbet-push the river. They usually don’t play a capped range another way.

If he had bet three barrels, taking 5 to 10 seconds to make each decision, I would be more inclined to fold on the turn because I would have to call the river after having called the turn. Otherwise, I would just waste my chips. It is crucial because apart from defining the ranges, the key factor for my call-down was the villain’s timing.

Considering all said above, I think the villain would most often continue betting with all his flop bet range, although we should somewhat correct his range. In addition, this is the point where the villain has to decide whether he is going to the end with his bluffs or checking behind some of them. I believe the villain would lean to bluffing more often, so I give his bluffing hands a 60% probability; on the river, he would continue with the same number of hands:

I removed JT and KJ from the villain’s range because he would more often bet/check/bet with them. I reduced the number of his bluffs, although the villain would get to the river with them because any competent regular knows that three barrels are better than two in this spot in order to put the maximum pressure on the capped range.

So, I need 37% of equity to make a 0 EV call on the river. As seen from the screenshot below, I have 44% of equity and I did not include any combos of zero-equity bluffs, Ax hands, and weakest third pairs turned into a bluff.

This is what I got:

Conclusion: Pay close attention to your opponents’ tendencies and timings. Sometimes, it might turn out to be the key factor influencing your decision. In addition, to strengthen your check range on the flop, you should fill it with your strong part of your betting range and do it with an approximate 50/50 probability, depending on the situation, in order to avoid weakening the betting range.