DFS Daily Update for 10/1: Week 5 College Football Preview
Happy Thursday everyone and welcome to Week 5 of the college football season. There are 19 games on the schedule for the early slate and 13 more for the late slate on DraftKings. More the merrier in my opinion, so let’s focus on the early slate. There are two games in particular I want to dig deep into and then we can sprinkle in some more to create the building blocks for our lineups. College football games on DraftKingsstart as low as quarter, so check out the lobby.
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Texas Tech 3-1 vs. Baylor 3-0 2:30 PM CT (AT&T Stadium in Arlington)
Line: Baylor -17
O/U: 89
The main thing to know about this game is offense. A college football DFS dream, with Baylor averaging a nation leading 767 yards per game and 64 points per game. Their opponents? Well Texas Tech only comes in fourth with 594.5 yards per game and 53.8 points per game. Add in Tech allowing 556.2 yards per game and Baylor allowing 318.3 yards per game against weak opponents and we are in for some fireworks.
Baylor QB Seth Russell (9300 DK) (10100 FD) lights it up with 331.7 passing yards per game and 5 TDs/game. Last week was a light workload for Russell, who went 12/16 for 277 and 6 TDs.
Baylor WR Corey Coleman (7900 DK) (8600 FD) continues to make the big plays with 17 receptions for 460 yards and 8 TDs in only three games. It’s hard to spend 7900 for a wide receiver on DraftKings, but remember what TCU’s number one receiver Josh Doctson did to Texas Tech last week (65.7 FP) and it’s almost harder not to play Coleman.
Baylor WR Jay Lee (5500 DK) (6200 FD) is still the better option over the more expensive KD Cannon (6000 DK) (6600 FD) in my opinion. Lee gets the second most targets on the team and averages almost twice as many FPPG as Cannon.
Baylor RB Shock Linwood (7300 DK) (8100 FD) has a stellar 8.6 rushing yards per carry. With that said, he has still yet to catch a pass. I think Baylor will run on Tech’s defense, but is Linwood worth the high cost? I’ll continue to fade Linwood until he is cheaper or he starts putting up over 30 FPPG.
Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes (8500 DK) (8600 FD), is listed as questionable after injuring his knee in the first quarter last week versus TCU. Good news is he played the rest of the game and did quite well, throwing for 392 yards and accounting for 3 TDs. If you are going the Mahomes route, I’d have a backup lineup with backup QB Davis Webb (7300 DK) (8200 FD) to shift in those contests to be safe.
Texas Tech WR Jakeem Grant (7100 DK) (6900 FD) had another good game last week, grabbing 8 receptions for 126 yards and a TD. I’m still waiting for him to have that huge game, but Mahomes has found 9 different receivers at least 5 times this year. Grant is Tech’s number one receiver, but he is not on the same level for DFS as Corey Coleman or Josh Doctson yet.
Texas Tech WR Devin Lauderdale (4800 DK) (5700 FD) is a cheaper option that does produce 20+ FPPG on average. He should be a great value guy, as we expect the Red Raiders to be playing from behind.
Texas Tech RB DeAndre Washington (5500 DK) (7400 FD) had a monster game last week against TCU with 188 rushing yards and 4 TDs. A lot of that had to do with the Mahomes injury and trying to take some of the pressure off of the injured QB. Look for that to be a continuing trend and get Washington cheap while you still can.
Houston 3-0 @ Tulsa 2-1 11:00 AM CT
Line: Houston -7
O/U: 81
Houston has been impressive this year, knocking off Louisville in Week 2 and having one of the more electrifying QBs in the country. Averaging 590.7 yards per game is great, but their weak spot this year has been pass defense, allowing 313 yards a game through the air. Tulsa can sling it on most, averaging 390.7 yards passing, including 427 yards against Oklahoma.
Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. (8900 DK) (9200 FD) does it all for the Cougars, averaging 261.7 passing yards with 8 TDs while also leading the team in rushing for 96.7 yards a game and 4 TDs this year. Tulsa had big troubles with Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, so I could see Ward putting up big numbers this weekend.
Houston WR Demarcus Ayers (6200 DK) (6700 FD) is the leading receiver and a nice cuff with Ward after grabbing 8 receptions for 126 yards and 2 TDs last week.
Houston WR Steven Dunbar (3500 DK) (5900 FD) may be worth taking a flyer on this week if you need a cheap WR. He has caught a TD in each of his last two games.
Tulsa QB Dane Evans (7900 DK) (8200 FD) threw for 427 yards and 4 TDs against Oklahoma his last game. We have a good combo with Houston being tough against the run and not so much against the pass. Evans could go off in a big way this week.
Tulsa WR Keevan Lucas (6900 DK) (7400 FD) is still the number one WR for the Golden Hurricanes and teams like Oklahoma have tried to make him their main focal point on defense, but Lucas still finds a way put up big numbers.
Tulsa WR Keyarris Garrett (6400 DK) (6600 FD) has been the biggest benefactor from the extra attention Lucas has received. Last game, Garrett caught 14 passes for 189 yards and a TD. He is averaging over 150 receiving yards/game this year.
Tulsa WR Joshua Atkinson (4400 DK) (5600 FD) has become the third receiving weapon for Dane Evans, topping 100 yards receiving and adding a TD in each of the last two games. He is a cheaper option that is getting more targets as he continues to progress.
Other Players Worth Considering
Virginia Tech WR Isaiah Ford (4500 DK) (5800 FD) turns in consistent 20 FP games, a solid number at his DraftKings price.
Michigan State RB Madre London (5100 DK) (6700 FD) hasn’t had the breakout game we have been looking for, hence the reason his price continues to drop. However, he is the lead back for the Spartans and Purdue’s defense is atrocious. London or LJ Scott (4300 DK) (6200 FD) should get a lot of carries this Saturday and are worth taking a flyer on in GPP lineups.
TCU WR Josh Doctson (7600 DK) (8700 FD) had the game of his career last week with 18 receptions for 267 yards and 3 TDs. Texas allows 276.8 passing yards a game, 99th in the nation. Perhaps a recipe for a repeat performance for Doctson.
TCU WR Kolby Listenbee (4000 DK) (5800 FD) sat out last week’s game and is still listed as questionable, but if he good to go that’s the steal of the week at 4k on DraftKings.
West Virginia QB Skyler Howard (6500 DK) (7700 FD) is the lesser talked about QB in this game, but the one with more value as Baker Mayfield looks too expensive in this matchup.
West Virginia RB Westin Smallwood (4900 DK) (5800 DK) again is the higher value player in this game, averaging over 23 FPPG.
West Virginia WR Shelton Gibson (4600 DK) (6000 FD) is another value player for this underrated Mountaineer offense that averages 543.3 yards per game. Gibson had a 32 FP game last week in a blowout win.
North Carolina State RB Matthew Dayes (5300 DK) (5100 FD) is averaging 35 FPPG this year against very weak competition. However, his production cannot go unnoticed and with the dismissal of RB Shadrach Thornton, his workload should increase.
North Carolina State WR/TE Jaylen Samuels (4400 DK) (4000 FD) has 8 total TDs already this year and averages 25 FPPG.
Louisville WR James Quick (3700 DK) (5700 FD) returned last week from an ankle injury with 3 catches for 69 yards and a TD. It’s hard to find a WR 1 at 3700 on DraftKings; hopefully he continues to get better.
Florida State RB Dalvin Cook (8800 DK) (7700 FD) is in a favorable matchup against Wake Forest, but is too expensive on DraftKings. However, that is a sexy price for Cook on FanDuel, especially with backup Mario Pender out for this one.
Missouri QB Drew Lock (4300 DK) (5100 FD), is worth a flyer on DraftKings, punting your QB 2 to spend up at other positions. Lock is getting his first career start after Maty Mauk got suspended Tuesday night. Missouri has a terrible running game so far this year, while South Carolina does not have the best pass defense. It is very hard to find a starting QB at 4300, and like David Blough for Purdue last week, that could give you a huge advantage in GPP lineups.
We are one-third of the way through the regular season, with game-breakers emerging on multiple teams. I hope there are enough value players out there to allow us to get as many game-breakers as possible. Good luck and run good out there this week on the virtual gridiron.
