Football! Are you as psyched as I am for this season? I am especially excited for this weekend in DFS, because it is the biggest weekend of daily fantasy sports EVER, especially if you add Tuesday to the weekend with the first ever DraftKings Millionaire Maker for baseball!

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Qualify for the Star Fantasy Leagues $150,000 Fantasy Football Championship for as little as $2 at StarFantasyLeagues.com. Get in the game!

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Nobody cares about baseball though until Monday, so let’s discuss some football theory with direct application to this opening weekend.

There is a lot of variance in football. This we know. We do not know who will score the touchdowns this weekend. We also do not know how popular each player will be. We know that the popularity of a player should directly guide our decision making process. If player A scores 30 points 30% of the time while player B scores 30 points 25% of the time and they both cost the same, then the projected ownership of those players dictate who is the best play.

For cash games (head to head, 50/50s), just play the best player. I would take player A without ever considering ownership percentages. For GPPs (guaranteed prize pools, aka tournaments) however, and especially top heavy GPPs like the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, we really need to separate from the herd.

If player A is owned by 20% of teams and player B is 10%, then player B is the best play in GPPs, even though player A is the optimal play. The reasoning here is that with player A, 30% of the time you separate from 75% of the field, but with player B, 25% of the time you separate from 90% of the field.

We cannot learn ownership percentages until lineups lock, but with the help of FanDuel’s Thursday contests, we can learn some things because all players lock on Thursday. Let’s discuss some of the highly owned players on FanDuel and how we can apply that information to contests this Sunday. These numbers come from browsing the $1 and $2 GPPs I entered and I just rounded them off because we’re not talking exacts here.

QB

Tom Brady 24%
Sam Bradford 14
Ben Roethlisberger 12
Tyrod Taylor 8
Ryan Tannehill 6
Aaron Rodgers 5
Tony Romo 4
Matt Ryan 3
Andrew Luck 3

Tom Brady was owned about 24%, and Big Ben came in at 12%. That’s 36% that needs to go somewhere else, and they’re likely to go to the other popular options in Sam Bradford and Tyrod Taylor. I noticed that Tyrod Taylor was owned about 25% in my 50/50s. Not on this list are Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and a handful of other guys who can throw a bunch of touchdowns. I am surprised that Rodgers was only 5%; he should soak up some ownership too.

I will be fading Bradford and Taylor in GPPs on Sunday. I’m tempted to get off Tannehill, but my combo with him (Greg Jennings, baby) is very unpopular (0.5%) so I will happily run him out there. I’m most pleased with Matt Ryan’s ownership. He is my favorite play of the weekend and my cash game play over at DraftKings. It will be interesting to see how ownership varies between FanDueland DraftKings with the different price points.

RB

Eddie Lacy 25%
Lamar Miller 14
Demarco Murray 13
Doug Martin 13
Adrian Peterson 12
Jeremy Hill 10
Chris Ivory 9
Jonathan Stewart 8
Alfred Blue 5
CJ Anderson 5
Jamaal Charles 4
Marshawn Lynch 4
Matt Forte 4
Mark Ingram 3
Andre Ellington 3

Now here is some valuable information. We don’t have to speculate where the popular players from Thursday night will go because there weren’t any. We do need to fade Eddie Lacy though, 25% is much too high for him. I agree he is the optimal play, I have him in my cash games, but I am going to dump all my shares of him in GPPs. I have been all over Jeremy Hill, Chris Ivory, and Jonathan Stewart; I will stay on those trains. I love Andre Ellington more, especially on StarsDraft.

CJ Anderson sticks out to me as the most criminally under owned at 5%. There is no way that Eddie Lacy is five times more likely to go off than CJ Anderson (or any of those other superstars like Charles, Lynch, or Forte). I do think CJ Anderson is significantly more likely to go off than Charles or Lynch and probably Forte, but I am moving my exposure heavily to CJ Anderson in light of these ownership numbers.

WR

Davante Adams 28%
Antonio Brown 26
Jordan Matthews 21
Julio Jones 19
Julian Edelman 15
Markhus Wheaton 12
Dez Bryant 11
Odell Beckham 10
Brandin Cooks 10
Jarvis Landry 9
John Brown 7
Demariyus Thomas 5
Emmanuel Sanders 3
Randall Cobb 2
Eddie Royal 2

RANDALL COBB AT 2%. Wooooow. He’s the new Jordy Nelson. I get that he got hurt a couple of weeks ago, but he’s practicing and going to play. How is Davante Adams at 28% and Randall Cobb only 2%? He’s a better football player than Adams. If Adams is in a good spot, then Cobb is in a good spot too. He might be my new favorite play of this weekend with an ownership percentage that low.

I expect all the Antonio Brown owners to jump on the Julio Jones bandwagon. That makes me want off him a bit, but I like his combo with Ryan and accept how low Matt’s ownership is. Edelman guys go to Matthews? I didn’t expect him to be that highly owned already, I think I need to get off that boat and hope it sinks with a 5 for 55 performance.

I’m once again shocked at how lowly owned the Broncos are. They’re supposed to score 26 points, Green Bay is supposed to score 28 points. 70.45% of the bets are going on to Green Bay, 62% are taking Denver -4. The Denver line has moved from -4.5, but the Green Bay line has not. Makes me want some Broncos. Makes me want to fade Green Bay, especially considering ownership – except for Randall Cobb. Two percent. Sheesh.

TE

Gronk 32%
Greg Olsen 19
Martellus Bennett 5
Jimmy Graham 5
Heath Miller 4
Owen Daniels 4
Jordan Cameron 3

36% needs to be doled out from the Gronk and Heath owners, and most of them will land on Greg Olsen. That makes him a fade for me in GPPs (although he is my cash game play). Will Owen Daniels be the most popular Bronco this week?

D/ST

Jets 18%
Dolphins 17
Seahawks 9
Panthers 8
Packers 4
Broncos 4

The Jets clearly have the best match up, lowest price tag, and they’re the only home favorites in a game featuring a low total. It was obvious to me that they were going to be the most popular defensive unit. Since we can’t predict defensive touchdowns, that means it is game theory optimal to fade the popular D/ST units in GPPs. Granted, the Jets are my cash game D/ST. I replaced them in my GPPs with Tampa Bay though, the other home favorite in a game with a low total and the only one that nobody is talking about. I like the Panthers enough (and Ted Ginn Jr as a combo… cheap, returning kicks, and starting WR) that I will accept them at 8%. I’m off Seattle at 9%. I expected the Phins to be popular, but not that popular, and as such I will be fading them too. Along with Carolina I like Denver (did you know Emmanuel Sanders will be returning kicks for them this year?!?) and Tampa Bay.

Remember that in GPPs, it’s not about making lineups with the highest point expectation, it’s about making lineups with the highest probability of winning the GPP. Rostering unpopular players rather than the chalk is the easiest way to increase your probability of winning a GPP.

Devo