There’s always at least one of these days in baseball like last night where everything goes backwards. That’s part of why I like DFS baseball so much – there is enough variance that bad players can win almost as often as they lose, keeping them playing and keeping the games good. There’s even spots in MLB GPPs where we can play good by playing bad, banking on the variance that is baseball and a payoff greater than the risk of target unlikely event happening.

Yesterday there were numerous top pitching options, and you had to have one of either Bumgarner, Greinke, or Sale to do anything in a GPP. Everybody else got shelled. But then, you had to have a Phillies stack if you wanted to do anything yesterday too. I pondered a Phillies stack a couple of times, but they were still +200 dogs with a team total of 3. They also seemed to be popular around the industry, which made me feel that if they did go off, then I would be competing with more Phillies stacks than usual, and we would all be sharing Sale and either Greinke or Bumgarner, which isn’t the spot you want to be in when trying to build a contrarian lineup.

Let’s examine yesterday’s top 10 in the big $27 on DraftKings.

1 okwhynot (113/200) 190.6 P Madison Bumgarner P Chris Sale C Carlos Ruiz 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Nolan Arenado SS Andres Blanco OF Jeff Francoeur OF Aaron Altherr OF Yoenis Cespedes

2 BigPenguin (105/176) 189.6 P Madison Bumgarner P Chris Sale C Kyle Schwarber 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Freddy Galvis SS Andres Blanco OF Jeff Francoeur OF Aaron Altherr OF Yoenis Cespedes

3 luceca8 (3/4) 188.15 P Zack Greinke P Chris Sale C Kyle Schwarber 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF Aaron Altherr OF Yoenis Cespedes

4 oldgregg415 (3/5) 185.6 P Madison Bumgarner P Chris Sale C Kyle Schwarber 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF Aaron Altherr OF Yoenis Cespedes

5 MotownMauler (84/98) 184.15 P Zack Greinke P Chris Sale C Yan Gomes 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF A.J. Pollock OF Aaron Altherr

5 okwhynot (26/200) 184.15 P Zack Greinke P Chris Sale C Yan Gomes 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF A.J. Pollock OF Aaron Altherr

7 Firedancers 184.1 P Madison Bumgarner P Drew Smyly C Stephen Vogt 1B Joey Votto 2B Jose Altuve 3B Evan Longoria SS Andres Blanco OF Curtis Granderson OF Darin Ruf OF Yoenis Cespedes

8 mikiew12 183.8 P Chris Sale P Matt Shoemaker C Yan Gomes 1B Mark Trumbo 2B Rougned Odor 3B Ryan Zimmerman SS Didi Gregorius OF Franklin Gutierrez OF Kole Calhoun OF Adam Eaton

9 Kcannon (3/19) 183.25 P Zack Greinke P Madison Bumgarner C Kyle Schwarber 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF A.J. Pollock OF Aaron Altherr

9 booyah72 (2/15) 183.25 P Zack Greinke P Madison Bumgarner C Kyle Schwarber 1B Darin Ruf 2B Darnell Sweeney 3B Andres Blanco SS Cesar Hernandez OF Jeff Francoeur OF A.J. Pollock OF Aaron Altherr

Props to Firedancers and mikiew12 for firing a Phillies stack with their first and only entry into this massive $27 GPP. They were also the only two users to use a pitcher besides Sale, Greinke, or Bumgarner. There were also two ties here in the top ten, and tying is difficult on a 15 game MLB slate.

The lesson here that I have been pondering is something about being contrarian when you’re not really being contrarian. Many extraordinary circumstances went down last night that led to one special niche of team winning everything, but that team was popular. The odds of all those things happening didn’t equal the payouts received to those who gambled on those odds because too many people gambled on those odds.

Yesterday reminded me of a day last baseball season, May 17th. Clayton Kershaw faced Arizona and was extremely popular on a slate that didn’t feature many great options. Hamels faced Cincy at home but was priced close to Kershaw, he did well. Lackey got beat up by Boston. Gio got got by the Mets. The Cubs scored a few on Garza. There was a game between the Padres and Rockies at Coors, they scored 13 runs total. The Phillies scored 12 runs total, and as the game in Colorado entered the 4th inning with San Diego up 6-1, it was looking like the few brave souls that had Philly and Kershaw and Hamels were going to win all the money unless San Diego could score another dozen.

Then Kershaw took the mound in Arizona. He threw a scoreless 1st, but couldn’t get a 3rd out in the 2nd inning, giving up 7 runs. The DBacks scored another 11 on the Dodgers bullpen, and when all the dust settled there was one guy on top of every leaderboard with his Arizona stack. Behind him was a mixture of Philly stacks and guys that got the pitching right. He was contrarian banking on rare event like last night, without the competition of others.

So don’t be different because it’s cool to be different, because then you’ll hang out with all your hipster friends on top of the leaderboard. If you’re going to be different, you want to be different in front of everybody, by yourself.

Tonight is a night to be different. We’re always looking to balance ownership vs. odds of a ceiling being hit. Obviously the Rockies and Diamondbacks have a higher ceiling than the Phillies, but ceilings don’t matter when we count the fantasy points at the end. I went all in on Arizona yesterday, and was pleased with their ownerships. (Beef) Wellington, 11.9, Goldy 12.6, Lamb 7.1… INCIARTE 5.7… He was the leadoff man for the visiting team in Coors field, and the rookie callup Darnell Sweeney… FOR PHILLY… was higher owned than him at 6.9%. Furthermore, Phil Gosselin, same price, same position, playing in Coors Field, was owned 5.4%.

So maybe that means that people are on the Phillies tonight or off of Harvey, but I doubt that. Matt Harvey is really good at pitching, Philly is still one of the worst in the league in hitting, and his price tag is enticing in another slew of aces. It’s Kershaw night but he’s expensive and facing the Giants who are a tough team to pitch to. As a lifelong Giants fan, let me share a secret with you. We can’t hit him. The only guy we have that can is Marlon Byrd, but we just picked him up and his super power is hitting lefties. Posey is our long term lefty masher, he’s .203/.225/.319 (ba/ops/slg) over 69 at bats. Belt is .088/.162/.118 over 34. B Craw is .056/.105/.056 over 18. That’s 1-18 with a walk. Kershaw is really good and shows up for his rivalry vs. the Giants. I bet he goes under owned too with all the other good looking/cheaper options plus distracting bats in Coors Field.

I am trying to have a Kershaw or Harvey in every lineup. Both in cash. I’m off Scherzer, don’t like his matchup at StL or 12.1k price tag. He faces Wacha too who has a tough matchup vs. WAS, I think most of us have just written that game off. Hamels looks good facing San Diego at Petco Park, nice price at 10.8k. I guess that means we’ll see a lot of combos of those three pitchers? Below that there are options but they’re kind of just that. Kazmir faces Seattle, but he doesn’t strike out enough guys to excite me. Kennedy does but he faces Texas and has blow up potential and is going to have a tough time getting a win against Hamels. Yordano faces Detroit and has taken gas off he is fastball, although he struck out double digits and walked 4 last outing. Rodon is sexy to me; people fear Minnesota after they pounded Sale and other lefties like him lately. Rodon strikes guys out though, and I like his upside in the cheap guys. You could talk me into Gausman or Locke for really cheap options, but you’re going to have to find points in your pitchers tonight. Lots of them got shelled last night, but still 3 made it through the carnage. And if you end up on one of those really cheap guys, then it means you’re on a really expensive stack… like the Diamondbacks or Rockies.

The last two nights I was all over the DBacks because I expected their ownership to be lower than it should have been, and it was. Tonight I expect the opposite. The sexy options available in the last two days like CIN, CHC, NYY, and BOS, are all playing baseball right now. That accounts for something like 40% of all ownership yesterday and diminishes the exciting options tonight. All those players are going somewhere, and I bet a lot of them go to Coors with it’s total of 11, higher than it’s usual 10 or 10.5. The game is a pick’em too so both teams should be very popular. Of the eleven games left on the slate, there really aren’t many other options to attract people. TOR always gets some attention and will against Bauer, but Bauer is a righty and Toronto is much stronger vs. lefties. Pittsburgh should get some lookers facing some guy named Davies at Milwaukee. Nice ballpark boost there. Kansas City will get some looks against some guy named Wolf. They are the only 3 teams with totals at 4.5. I bet something like 15% each goes to ARI and COL, the rest scatter about the other options, and if I am correct then the correct play is to fade Coors tonight in GPPs.

I’ll have exposure to those 3 non Coors games as well as some off the board West Coast stacks like Texas, San Diego, and Los Angeles. I like all of their potential and prices and projected ownership. Kennedy has been hot lately but people forget that he likes to give up the long ball in bunches, making him both a good GPP play and a good pitcher to stack against. Nobody will have the Padres tonight against Hamels. The Dodgers always go overlooked but still can go off. The later games always go overlooked. I am waiting on the Indians lineup, I like them if they roll out their BvP value guys. I trust BvP much more vs. specialized pitchers like Dickey and his knuckleball, and there are some guys for CLE who seem to be able to hit it (Raburn, Sands, Johnson, Aviles) and those who can’t (Santana, Kipnis, and Brantleyish).

There’s a ton of cheap options tonight so pay up for that pitching in all formats. Here’s my all punt lineup:

C Jaso
1B Justin Smoak or Kyle Parker
2B Darnell Sweeney
SS No good punts, so give me dongs that fit… Kang, Peralta, or Lowrie
3B No good punts either – Jake Lamb or Pedro Alvarez
OF Carl Crawford, Grady Sizemore, and Kyle Parker.

Have fun out there.

Devo