I suppose it’s the nature of all generations (and sub-generations) to believe that their world context has been forever, and will be forever. I remember my elder son – an intelligent, college-educated young man – suddenly grasping the realization that the human race, good ol’ Homo sapiens, is not some evolutionary terminus. “Wow. So something will come after us. That isn’t human as we know it.”

Yep. And something after them, and something after them, and so on, until the sun flames out or one of those every-26-million-year meteors center-punches Paris and engulfs the planet in a three-year dust cloud that looks like Santa Ana, California on a very bad smog day. And now here’s a more frightening thought: no-limit hold’em may not always be the primary poker game played in home games and casinos.

I know that seems unthinkable. After all, many of you reading this have only been playing the game in the post-WPT era. And if you walk into virtually any casino poker room these days, it’s a sea of $1-2 no-limit hold’em. But let me give you some context… Had you walked into that same casino poker room in 1999 – a scant ten years ago, you would have seen a sea of limit hold’em games. They would have ranged down to about $2-4 in some rooms and $3-6 in others. In the very early days, there were actually $1-2 limit hold’em games dealt in live clubs, but the rake quickly destroyed the players (and thus the games). Also, hold’em didn’t have the stranglehold on the entire U.S. that it enjoys now. East of the Mississippi, in Atlantic City and Foxwoods, you would have seen a very healthy seven-card stud scene – indeed, probably more seven-stud games than hold’em.

Now set the way-back machine for 1979 – twenty years earlier. The poker games, such as they were, would have been largely limited to desultory low limit seven-card stud games designed to keep husbands occupied in a casino while their wives fed the one-armed bandits. I can remember watching a seven-stud game in Las Vegas in the early 80’s where the bring-in was a quarter. I don’t mean a poker player’s or blackjack player’s “quarter” ($25), but indeed, one quarter of a U.S. dollar. Each player would toss his 25 cents in, and the dealer would burn and pitch fourth-street to the remaining players (i.e. almost all of them).

At the same time, hold’em and stud had not been legalized in California, so the big California card clubs (and yes, they existed then) were smoke-filled and draw-filled. The two big games were five-card draw high (the joker acted as an ace, or filled straights and flushes) and ace-to-five lowball draw (with the joker). Next time you run into Mike Caro or David Sklansky, ask ’em about it. They were there and fed well on the draw-playing fish.

Had you surveyed poker in the U.S. at either of those times, you’d have had no hint that 10 or 30 years later, the poker landscape would be almost unrecognizable. The players would be much younger, the rooms devoid of cigarette smoke, and the very game at the center of it all, totally different. Of course, it’s much more fun to predict the future than to simply state the obvious point that “it’ll damn sure be something other than what it is today.” The current trend makes me believe that we’re headed for “more action.” My prediction is that big-bet poker (pot-limit and no-limit) is here to stay for the foreseeable future. People like the action and big pots. The demographic of poker playing has shifted to young people, who are much more risk-tolerant than the elder generations – they don’t care for the relative calm of limit betting.

But I think that same desire for action may cause a trend toward games with more action. Games that aren’t quite as well-understood and “solved” as hold’em is now. The obvious one is pot-limit Omaha (PLO) which is developing traction throughout the U.S. (and has always been very popular in Europe). My dark horse candidate is some kind of double-flop game. Its problem is that it’s sufficiently complex and logistically difficult that it won’t really take off in brick-and-mortar rooms. The B&M stores have difficulty already getting out enough hands per hour to keep the younger online-weaned set interested. They don’t need a game that will reduce their hands per hour (and rake) even further.

Oh, and what about HORSE and other mixed games? Honestly, I think we missed the boat on that one. The fact is that any mixed game format truly favors the renaissance poker player… a man or woman who understands the game at a deep theoretical level, and easily adapts to the changes from format to format. Such people are rare, and they hold incredible power over single-game specialists. For better or worse, a poker ecosystem flourishes when the weaker players still have a fighting chance against the strong ones. Mixed games do not provide that fighting chance, and in fact, exacerbate the skill differences. In my humble opinion, don’t wait for the Venetian poker room to be filled with $5-10 HORSE games.

Now, every good tale needs a moral; here’s mine: stay on your toes. Read a book (watch a video, read an article) about some form of poker that you don’t know. Think about that form of poker and compare and contrast it with the form(s) that you do know.

Here’s a sample problem for you: I was in a home game the other night, and they played a game they called “Oklahoma” (or “Oklahomaha”). It was just like PLO, only (1) there are three parallel boards, and (2), the board(s) with the lowest ranked river card is swept from the table and ceases to be in play. There is no default pot-splitting; your flush on board #1 simply beats the straight on board #2. So – what are your strategy adjustments? The average winning hand clearly increases – there are more ways for each player to make a hand. I have another theory about this game (and games like it), but I’m going to keep that to myself for now.

The point is that if you plan to play poker for another ten, or 20, or 40 years, you better be ready for 3-4 major shifts in the poker world over your career. Don’t be one of those creatures who goes extinct because the one plant it knows how to eat doesn’t grow for a couple of years.

—

Lee Jonesis the cardroom manager of Cake Pokerand has been in the online poker business for over six years. He is also the author of Winning Low Limit Hold’em, which is in its 15th year of publication.

More Articles by Lee Jones

The Arc of a Home Game Jul 14, 2009

Getting What You Want from an Online Poker Site Jun 21, 2009