I played these two hands in a $1,100 MSPT event at Downstream Casino near Joplin, Missouri. This is Day 1A and we are playing nine 50-minute levels with a 10-minute break every two levels. There were 70 players to begin the day and at the time of the first hand, we had 24 players, one 10-minute break, and one level remaining.

I am in the small blind playing the last hand as our table breaks and the rest of players are going on a 10-minute break. The blinds are 600/1,200/100 and a lady who has been at our table about one full level opens from the button for 2,500 with about 45,000 behind. I make it 6,500 with A-A from the small blind with about 50,000 behind, the big blind folds, and the lady on the button calls.

The flop is A-Q-6 and I check. In some situations, I would c-bet here even though I smashed the flop, but I felt this lady wouldn’t get suspicious if I checked the flop instead of make a standard c-bet. After I check the flop, she bets 4,000 and I choose to call with a plan of leading the turn, but do not want to seem strong with a check-raise. I would consider checking the turn some, but definitely do not want to give her a free turn too often, as I want three streets of value if possible.

The turn is a 7, I bet 9,000, and she calls. My thinking on the turn is that she has some piece of the board or she would have checked the flop back, so I expect to get a call a decent percentage of the time.

The river is an 8 for a board of A-Q-6-7-8. First to act, I shove 35,000 into a pot of 40,000. I feel my options are to bet for value or make myself seem possibly a little more like I’m bluffing and shove, which would in turn get max value. At the time, I felt the lady perceived me in a way that a shove might get more action than a value bet.

The lady had about 27,000 behind and went into the tank. The break had started and she tanks for 6 minutes of the 10-minute break. She also starts talking about the hands that might have her beat, rattling off, “There is no flush, there is no straight, you could have a set,” and then tells me she has two pair. It’s kind of odd that she did not see the possible straight, though. I continue to just sit there with a “please don’t call me face” for a good 5 minutes then say, “Just let me win one and we will go enjoy the rest of the break, please.” After saying this, she folded.

In hindsight, I think a 12,000 bet on the river would have been better to make sure I get some value. At the time, I felt her perception of me might help the shove look weaker, but after thinking about it, I think she is more likely to call any bet that does not put her all-in. I truly thought she would call a decent percentage of the time, but I did make almost a full pot bet and could have bet for value.

After the hand, I had about 80,000 and went to enjoy the last 4 minutes of my break. Our table was breaking and I was told the floor would have my chips at a new seat when I got back. Coming back from break, I noticed where I was sitting and the same lady from the last hand was on my direct right again. Also at the table were two big stacks with over 100,000 on my direct left with an average stack between them.

Just to be clear, the lady is in the 8 seat with about 29,500, I am in the 9 seat with about 80,000, a tight player in the 1 seat has about 150,000, an average stack of 40,000 is in the 2 seat, and RunGood pro Jennifer Branch was in the 3 seat with about 130,000. In seats 4, 5, and 6 were three gentlemen with about 20 big blinds or less.

The first hand at the new table was a fold and then I had A-Q offsuit in the HJ+2 at an 8-handed table. The blinds are now 800/1,600/200, so I open for 3,500. We get four folds and then a short stack shoves for 21,900. After the shove, there was a fold and then the lady calls the 21,900 out of a stack of 29,500.

I had seen her make this same play twice with low pocket pairs at our last table, so instead of snap-folding, I was thinking for a bit. As I tanked, the all-in player tables 7-7 with action pending. Now, I am really thinking and trying to figure this out. I know he has 7-7 and she is likely to have smaller pairs and hands that A-Q beats often. It’s 18,400 to call to win about 70,000, not including the 7,600 the lady has behind.

We are about 40 minutes from bagging for the day and are at 24 players from a 70-player start. We started with 20,000 in chips, so the average would be around 60,000. I was thinking that 18,000 to win 70,000 was just too hard to turn down, especially since I knew one guy had 7-7 and felt the lady could have smaller pairs and worse hands than A-Q.

I decide to call and feel there is no reason to raise and get her last 7,600 committed. I am thinking that the 7,600 could leave me some fold equity in some weird spots if I decided to bet the turn or river if she checked and I knew I was never folding if she bet it. The flop came K-J-5 and she leads for 7,600. I call, we flip our hands over, and she shows 5-5 for bottom set. I still had four 10s in the deck to catch for a straight, but bricked out.

In review, we can use this equation to figure out the equity we need to make the call: amount to call/(amount to call + total pot). Then, we can run our hand versus 7-7 and the range we put the lady on to see if it would be profitable. The amount to call is 18,400 and we’ll divide that by the amount to call plus the total pot. The total pot would be 51,300, so it’s 18,400/(18,400 + 51,300) = 26%.

With that, we know we need 26% equity to break even; any equity over 26% would be a profitable play. Now, we must run A-Q offsuit versus 7-7 versus 3-3+, A-10o+, A-10s+, and K-Qs. After running A-Q offsuit versus 7-7, versus her range we have 31.2% equity, so it’s profitable.

I also think we could probably take out A-A, K-K, and Q-Q from her range, as she would have probably shoved and not just called with at least those three. If we did that, we would have even more equity, not to mention the fact that a huge percentage of the time we win the hand, we have a huge stack and get to come back to Day 2 with over 60 big blinds. That may add some implied tournament equity.

What do you think? How would you have played these hands? Comment here and let me know.

This article was written by John cracker9ball Reynolds, who hails from Tulsa, Oklahoma. If you are interested in taking poker lessons or would like any information, contact him at variance101@gmail.com or visit Variance101.com.